Spread: UMass (-3.5)

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Ball State (46%) · Ball State at 57¢ · $29K held · ends Nov 5

UMass43¢Ball State57¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Ball State

Consensus Traders

Ball State 46%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$28.8K

Combined PnL

$-1.5K

Smart Money Entry

53¢ → 57.5¢

+9% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralBall State at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Ball State

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UMass43%

Ball State57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UMass7 traders

Total Value$12.5K

Total Shares29,489

Combined PnL$-1.6K

Ball State6 traders

Total Value$16.1K

Total Shares29,726

Combined PnL+$64.28

UMass — 54%Ball State — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Ball State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBall State 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUMass 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000UMass 64% · 11

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI lightotunnel35CTR	UMassavg 48.1¢	$12.5K	$11.1K	$-1.5K	59% 89-61 (150)
MU Multicoloured-Serf	Ball Stateavg 52¢	$10.2K	$10.5K	+$97.63	48% 303-327 (630)
IC ic4cream	Ball Stateavg 54.6¢	$4.3K	$4.2K	-$58.28	57% 2701-2002 (4703)
LI LimousinCTR	UMassavg 46.7¢	$774.8	$696.15	-$78.65	54% 1193-1031 (2224)
38 38791873984189	Ball Stateavg 54.8¢	$989.92	$664.79	+$20.24	48% 59324-63332 (122656)
VeryLucky888	Ball Stateavg 57¢	$570	$575	+$5	58% 45442-32918 (78360)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	UMassavg 46.7¢	$370.79	$333.15	-$37.64	56% 6179-4951 (11130)
SN SnakeBallCTR	UMassavg 46¢	$242.65	$221.55	-$21.1	50% 36339-35820 (72159)
NM NM-PARB<$100	UMassavg 46¢	$229.02	$215.98	-$13.04	40% 1343-2037 (3380)
└ UMass leg	UMassavg 46¢	$177.36	$163.86	-$13.49
└ Ball State leg	Ball Stateavg 57¢	$51.66	$52.11	+$0.45
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	UMassavg 42¢	$151.25	$153.06	+$1.8	51% 1793-1714 (3507)
nigiri99	Ball Stateavg 58¢	$120.06	$119.02	-$1.04	46% 8410-9880 (18290)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	UMassavg 45¢	$40.36	$38.11	-$2.25	58% 19471-14317 (33788)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	UMassavg 46¢	$23.17	$21.15	-$2.01	50% 25488-25195 (50683)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Ball Stateavg 51¢	$15.25	$15.98	+$0.73	54% 18039-15167 (33206)

lightotunnel35CTR

UMass

Invested

$12,504.72

Value

$11.1K

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

59%

89-61 (150)

Multicoloured-Serf

Ball State

Invested

$10,154.01

Value

$10.5K

PnL

+$97.63

Record

48%

303-327 (630)

ic4cream

Ball State

Invested

$4,265.96

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$58.28

Record

57%

2701-2002 (4703)

LimousinCTR

UMass

Invested

$774.8

Value

$696.15

PnL

-$78.65

Record

54%

1193-1031 (2224)

38791873984189

Ball State

Invested

$989.92

Value

$664.79

PnL

+$20.24

Record

48%

59324-63332 (122656)

VeryLucky888

Ball State

Invested

$570

Value

$575

PnL

+$5

Record

58%

45442-32918 (78360)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

UMass

Invested

$370.79

Value

$333.15

PnL

-$37.64

Record

56%

6179-4951 (11130)

SnakeBallCTR

UMass

Invested

$242.65

Value

$221.55

PnL

-$21.1

Record

50%

36339-35820 (72159)

NM-PARB<$100

UMass

Invested

$229.02

Value

$215.98

PnL

-$13.04

Record

40%

1343-2037 (3380)

Both legs:

UMass$177.3646¢-$13.49

Ball State$51.6657¢+$0.45

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

UMass

Invested

$151.25

Value

$153.06

PnL

+$1.8

Record

51%

1793-1714 (3507)

nigiri99

Ball State

Invested

$120.06

Value

$119.02

PnL

-$1.04

Record

46%

8410-9880 (18290)

ghorrockCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$40.36

Value

$38.11

PnL

-$2.25

Record

58%

19471-14317 (33788)

sentrioCTR<$100

UMass

Invested

$23.17

Value

$21.15

PnL

-$2.01

Record

50%

25488-25195 (50683)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Ball State

Invested

$15.25

Value

$15.98

PnL

+$0.73

Record

54%

18039-15167 (33206)

Research grade

NeutralBall State at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Ball State

6 of 13 top traders (46%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

-24 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Ball State. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleBall State 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrUMass 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000UMass 64% · 11

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Ball State wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.7%

57.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$67.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

167.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.