Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 5 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Auburn vs. Mississippi State: O/U 49.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 44¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 14

Over56¢Under44¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$12.9K

Combined PnL

-$198.86

Smart Money Entry

45.1¢ → 43.5¢

-3% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$11.7K

Total Shares26,293

Combined PnL-$149.51

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,393

Combined PnL-$49.35

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ET ethanazCTR	Underavg 45¢	$11.2K	$11.1K	-$124.47	46% 384-454 (838)
PR primm	Overavg 53.7¢	$813.01	$750.02	-$62.99	59% 932-653 (1585)
65 6512395314597884CTR	Underavg 47¢	$474.35	$454.5	-$19.85	50% 3807-3776 (7583)
nigiri99	Overavg 54¢	$282.42	$292.88	+$10.46	52% 573-538 (1111)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 43.7¢	$98.1	$97.58	-$0.52	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100	Overavg 54¢	$70.74	$73.36	+$2.62	48% 636-676 (1312)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$70.84	$66.22	-$4.62	47% 312-350 (662)
DA DanielsDixon<$100	Overavg 56¢	$61.89	$62.44	+$0.55	25% 21-62 (83)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 56¢	$53.33	$53.33	+$0	46% 2814-3341 (6155)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Overavg 56¢	$9.84	$9.84	+$0	47% 100-111 (211)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$4.4	$4.35	-$0.05	50% 1601-1625 (3226)

ethanazCTR

Under

Invested

$11,202.55

Value

$11.1K

PnL

-$124.47

Record

46%

384-454 (838)

primm

Over

Invested

$813.01

Value

$750.02

PnL

-$62.99

Record

59%

932-653 (1585)

6512395314597884CTR

Under

Invested

$474.35

Value

$454.5

PnL

-$19.85

Record

50%

3807-3776 (7583)

nigiri99

Over

Invested

$282.42

Value

$292.88

PnL

+$10.46

Record

52%

573-538 (1111)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$98.1

Value

$97.58

PnL

-$0.52

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

Multicoloured-Serf<$100

Over

Invested

$70.74

Value

$73.36

PnL

+$2.62

Record

48%

636-676 (1312)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$70.84

Value

$66.22

PnL

-$4.62

Record

47%

312-350 (662)

DanielsDixon<$100

Over

Invested

$61.89

Value

$62.44

PnL

+$0.55

Record

25%

21-62 (83)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$53.33

Value

$53.33

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

2814-3341 (6155)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Over

Invested

$9.84

Value

$9.84

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

100-111 (211)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.4

Value

$4.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.