Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold UCF, while the market favors Arizona State (51%). 8 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Arizona State (-2.5)

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold UCF (73%) · UCF at 49¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 14

Arizona State51¢UCF49¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

UCF

Consensus Traders

UCF 73%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$142.51

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 49¢

-16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUCF at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UCF

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Arizona State 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arizona State51%

UCF49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UCF8 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,498

Combined PnL+$144.62

Arizona State3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares2,449

Combined PnL-$2.11

UCF — 73%Arizona State — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on UCF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona State 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000UCF 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR	UCFavg 63.4¢	$797.14	$810.75	+$13.6	47% 3383-3741 (7124)
RN1CTR	UCFavg 50¢	$400.5	$516.65	+$116.14	55% 5525-4565 (10090)
PR primm	Arizona Stateavg 50¢	$416.5	$433.16	+$16.66	60% 1016-678 (1694)
GA Gaditima	Arizona Stateavg 36.2¢	$361.9	$355	-$6.9	49% 300-314 (614)
PU purplegatto	Arizona Stateavg 37.4¢	$230.55	$218.68	-$11.87	68% 2651-1237 (3888)
FO forecastication4CTR	UCFavg 63¢	$209.79	$214.79	+$5	34% 175-339 (514)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	UCFavg 50¢	$18.5	$23.87	+$5.37	49% 1694-1746 (3440)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	UCFavg 49¢	$12.88	$16.96	+$4.08	50% 2600-2575 (5175)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	UCFavg 64.2¢	$16.43	$16.51	+$0.08	53% 1938-1717 (3655)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	UCFavg 62¢	$5	$5.2	+$0.2	39% 3708-5917 (9625)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	UCFavg 48¢	$4.8	$4.95	+$0.15	55% 1703-1404 (3107)

38791873984189CTR

UCF

Invested

$797.14

Value

$810.75

PnL

+$13.6

Record

47%

3383-3741 (7124)

RN1CTR

UCF

Invested

$400.5

Value

$516.65

PnL

+$116.14

Record

55%

5525-4565 (10090)

primm

Arizona State

Invested

$416.5

Value

$433.16

PnL

+$16.66

Record

60%

1016-678 (1694)

Gaditima

Arizona State

Invested

$361.9

Value

$355

PnL

-$6.9

Record

49%

300-314 (614)

purplegatto

Arizona State

Invested

$230.55

Value

$218.68

PnL

-$11.87

Record

68%

2651-1237 (3888)

forecastication4CTR

UCF

Invested

$209.79

Value

$214.79

PnL

+$5

Record

34%

175-339 (514)

Pan9XCTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$18.5

Value

$23.87

PnL

+$5.37

Record

49%

1694-1746 (3440)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$12.88

Value

$16.96

PnL

+$4.08

Record

50%

2600-2575 (5175)

ghorrockCTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$16.43

Value

$16.51

PnL

+$0.08

Record

53%

1938-1717 (3655)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

UCF

Invested

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$0.2

Record

39%

3708-5917 (9625)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

UCF

Invested

$4.8

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$0.15

Record

55%

1703-1404 (3107)

Research grade

NeutralUCF at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

UCF

8 of 11 top traders (73%)Underdog side (market favors Arizona State 51%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

13h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on UCF. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrArizona State 50% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000UCF 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UCF wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.