Arkansas State vs. Coastal Carolina

18 of 24 top Polymarket traders hold Coastal Carolina (75%) · Coastal Carolina at 51¢ · $129K held · ends Nov 14

Arkansas State50¢Coastal Carolina50¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Coastal Carolina

Consensus Traders

Coastal Carolina 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$129.3K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 50.5¢

-2% since entry · 18 traders

Research grade

NeutralCoastal Carolina at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Coastal Carolina

18 of 24 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Arkansas State50%

Coastal Carolina51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Arkansas State6 traders

Total Value$63.3K

Total Shares128,657

Combined PnL+$1.0K

Coastal Carolina18 traders

Total Value$65.6K

Total Shares125,156

Combined PnL+$881.82

Arkansas State — 25%Coastal Carolina — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KC Kch-TempCTR	Arkansas Stateavg 48.6¢	$50.7K	$51.6K	+$888	3% 4-156 (160)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Coastal Carolinaavg 53¢	$11.0K	$10.9K	-$104.23	50% 2523-2479 (5002)
BO BoggsFromShawshank	Coastal Carolinaavg 51¢	$10.6K	$10.9K	+$310.5	3% 12-393 (405)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	Arkansas Stateavg 47¢	$9.7K	$9.8K	+$102.97	49% 635-674 (1309)
HO HomeRunHazard	Coastal Carolinaavg 51.6¢	$8.9K	$8.9K	-$13.58	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
IM imjustkenisghey	Coastal Carolinaavg 51¢	$6.3K	$6.5K	+$185.27	48% 34-37 (71)
VeryLucky888	Coastal Carolinaavg 51.5¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$100.76	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
0xheavy888	Coastal Carolinaavg 52¢	$5.2K	$5.3K	+$50	54% 496-419 (915)
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Coastal Carolinaavg 51¢	$4.3K	$4.4K	+$125.72	59% 502-345 (847)
38 38791873984189	Coastal Carolinaavg 51.4¢	$4.2K	$4.3K	+$92.77	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
0X 0x0A77exmm	Coastal Carolinaavg 51.4¢	$2.8K	$2.8K	+$11.44	44% 44-57 (101)
BA Bagwell306	Coastal Carolinaavg 51¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$75	33% 67-137 (204)
HI hi774c	Coastal Carolinaavg 51¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$44.44	22% 179-618 (797)
65 6512395314597884	Coastal Carolinaavg 51.7¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$5.85	50% 3804-3775 (7579)
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR	Arkansas Stateavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$11.81	1% 8-586 (594)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Coastal Carolinaavg 51¢	$408	$412	+$4	25% 341-1019 (1360)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Arkansas Stateavg 49¢	$364.31	$368.03	+$3.72	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
MA manoamanoCTR	Arkansas Stateavg 49¢	$341.76	$345.25	+$3.49	54% 29-25 (54)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Coastal Carolinaavg 51.4¢	$282.12	$287.55	+$5.43	50% 1587-1614 (3201)
└ Coastal Carolina leg	Coastal Carolinaavg 51.4¢	$211.62	$216.3	+$4.68
└ Arkansas State leg	Arkansas Stateavg 47¢	$70.5	$71.25	+$0.75
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Coastal Carolinaavg 51.5¢	$189.5	$193.2	+$3.7	48% 286-306 (592)
SE sentrio	Coastal Carolinaavg 51¢	$124.17	$125.39	+$1.22	42% 995-1363 (2358)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Coastal Carolinaavg 51.2¢	$107.42	$109.09	+$1.67	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
└ Coastal Carolina leg	Coastal Carolinaavg 51.2¢	$65.65	$65.99	+$0.34
└ Arkansas State leg	Arkansas Stateavg 47¢	$41.77	$43.1	+$1.33
tradecraft<$100	Coastal Carolinaavg 51.3¢	$76.99	$77.24	+$0.25	30% 335-776 (1111)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Arkansas Stateavg 49¢	$35.77	$36.14	+$0.36	48% 2074-2236 (4310)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100	Coastal Carolinaavg 51.5¢	$25.75	$25.75	-$0	39% 1088-1672 (2760)

Kch-TempCTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$50,684.32

Value

$51.6K

PnL

+$888

Record

4-156 (160)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$11,047.87

Value

$10.9K

PnL

-$104.23

Record

50%

2523-2479 (5002)

BoggsFromShawshank

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$10,557

Value

$10.9K

PnL

+$310.5

Record

12-393 (405)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$9,679.2

Value

$9.8K

PnL

+$102.97

Record

49%

635-674 (1309)

HomeRunHazard

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$8,879.63

Value

$8.9K

PnL

-$13.58

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

imjustkenisghey

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$6,299.01

Value

$6.5K

PnL

+$185.27

Record

48%

34-37 (71)

VeryLucky888

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$5,185.72

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$100.76

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

0xheavy888

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$5,200

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$50

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$4,274.61

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$125.72

Record

59%

502-345 (847)

38791873984189

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$4,204.35

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$92.77

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

0x0A77exmm

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$2,758.82

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$11.44

Record

44%

44-57 (101)

Bagwell306

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$2,550

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$75

Record

33%

67-137 (204)

hi774c

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$1,510.94

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$44.44

Record

22%

179-618 (797)

6512395314597884

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$1,463.29

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$5.85

Record

50%

3804-3775 (7579)

PEYZ-BIGGEST-FANCTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$1,157.43

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$11.81

Record

8-586 (594)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$408

Value

$412

PnL

+$4

Record

25%

341-1019 (1360)

FlaznorpCTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$364.31

Value

$368.03

PnL

+$3.72

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

manoamanoCTR

Arkansas State

Invested

$341.76

Value

$345.25

PnL

+$3.49

Record

54%

29-25 (54)

Pan9XARB<$100

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$282.12

Value

$287.55

PnL

+$5.43

Record

50%

1587-1614 (3201)

Both legs:

Coastal Carolina$211.6251.4¢+$4.68

Arkansas State$70.547¢+$0.75

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$189.5

Value

$193.2

PnL

+$3.7

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

sentrio

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$124.17

Value

$125.39

PnL

+$1.22

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

ghorrockARB<$100

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$107.42

Value

$109.09

PnL

+$1.67

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

Both legs:

Coastal Carolina$65.6551.2¢+$0.34

Arkansas State$41.7747¢+$1.33

tradecraft<$100

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$76.99

Value

$77.24

PnL

+$0.25

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Arkansas State

Invested

$35.77

Value

$36.14

PnL

+$0.36

Record

48%

2074-2236 (4310)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938<$100

Coastal Carolina

Invested

$25.75

Value

$25.75

PnL

-$0

Record

39%

1088-1672 (2760)

Research grade

NeutralCoastal Carolina at 51%

Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Coastal Carolina

18 of 24 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Coastal Carolina wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.