Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Alabama, while the market favors Vanderbilt (68%). 9 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Alabama (-13.5)

9 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Alabama (53%) · Alabama at 33¢ · $18K held · ended Nov 14

Alabama33¢Vanderbilt67¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Alabama

Consensus Traders

Alabama 53%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$288.58

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 32.5¢

-42% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 33%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Vanderbilt 68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Alabama33%

Vanderbilt68%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Vanderbilt8 traders

Total Value$6.2K

Total Shares12,577

Combined PnL+$477.9

Alabama9 traders

Total Value$5.9K

Total Shares10,854

Combined PnL-$189.33

Vanderbilt — 47%Alabama — 53%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Alabama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlabama 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVanderbilt 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Vanderbilt 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PR primm	Vanderbiltavg 44.7¢	$4.0K	$4.5K	+$475.16	59% 931-653 (1584)
RN1ARB<$100	Alabamaavg 54.1¢	$2.9K	$2.7K	-$128.94	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
└ Vanderbilt leg	Vanderbiltavg 47¢	$1.1K	$1.4K	+$274.71
└ Alabama leg	Alabamaavg 54.1¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$403.65
IC ic4creamCTR	Alabamaavg 58.5¢	$2.8K	$2.7K	-$94.22	6% 30-460 (490)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	Vanderbiltavg 41.5¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$170.47	50% 2532-2495 (5027)
└ Vanderbilt leg	Vanderbiltavg 41.5¢	$999.56	$1.1K	+$133.63
└ Alabama leg	Alabamaavg 51¢	$943.22	$980.07	+$36.84
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Alabamaavg 56¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$64.67	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
LI LightParadox	Vanderbiltavg 49¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	-$37.29	37% 977-1669 (2646)
nigiri99CTR	Alabamaavg 55.9¢	$822.34	$852.6	+$30.26	51% 568-535 (1103)
65 6512395314597884ARB<$100	Alabamaavg 54¢	$849.81	$815.7	-$34.11	50% 3807-3775 (7582)
└ Vanderbilt leg	Vanderbiltavg 49.8¢	$398	$464	+$66
└ Alabama leg	Alabamaavg 54¢	$451.81	$351.7	-$100.11
CM cm2897CTR	Alabamaavg 42¢	$373.8	$271.45	-$102.35	49% 1168-1203 (2371)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Vanderbiltavg 40¢	$215.99	$253.17	+$37.18	55% 1630-1336 (2966)
PA Pan9XARB<$100	Alabamaavg 52.3¢	$335.53	$128.92	+$3.52	50% 1593-1619 (3212)
└ Vanderbilt leg	Vanderbiltavg 56.1¢	$69.16	$71.45	+$21.03
└ Alabama leg	Alabamaavg 52.3¢	$71.6	$57.47	-$17.51
bakedbeanburrito	Vanderbiltavg 42¢	$127.59	$127.59	+$0	— 3-5 (8)
BI biying88888CTR	Alabamaavg 42¢	$105	$76.25	-$28.75	44% 203-260 (463)
AM AmericaFirst1<$100	Vanderbiltavg 47.4¢	$63.06	$66.59	+$3.53	47% 99-111 (210)
MA MadridTime<$100	Vanderbiltavg 48¢	$59	$58.39	-$0.61	37% 985-1642 (2627)
38 38791873984189CTR	Alabamaavg 52.4¢	$1.0K	$51.74	-$31.83	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Alabamaavg 58¢	$68.44	$41.3	-$27.14	54% 286-244 (530)
CUTJALENHURTS<$100	Vanderbiltavg 43.5¢	$16.98	$16.39	-$0.59	52% 2645-2472 (5117)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Alabamaavg 58¢	$11.6	$11.7	+$0.1	52% 833-779 (1612)
GH ghorrock<$100	Vanderbiltavg 38.9¢	$7.51	$8.05	+$0.54	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Alabamaavg 55¢	$7.7	$7.63	-$0.07	37% 1039-1757 (2796)

primm

Vanderbilt

Invested

$4,044.57

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$475.16

Record

59%

931-653 (1584)

RN1ARB<$100

Alabama

Invested

$2,856.3

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$128.94

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Both legs:

Vanderbilt$1,120.8147¢+$274.71

Alabama$1,735.554.1¢-$403.65

ic4creamCTR

Alabama

Invested

$2,782.68

Value

$2.7K

PnL

-$94.22

Record

30-460 (490)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$1,942.79

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$170.47

Record

50%

2532-2495 (5027)

Both legs:

Vanderbilt$999.5641.5¢+$133.63

Alabama$943.2251¢+$36.84

HomeRunHazardCTR

Alabama

Invested

$1,836.08

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$64.67

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

LightParadox

Vanderbilt

Invested

$1,218.2

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$37.29

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

nigiri99CTR

Alabama

Invested

$822.34

Value

$852.6

PnL

+$30.26

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

6512395314597884ARB<$100

Alabama

Invested

$849.81

Value

$815.7

PnL

-$34.11

Record

50%

3807-3775 (7582)

Both legs:

Vanderbilt$39849.8¢+$66

Alabama$451.8154¢-$100.11

cm2897CTR

Alabama

Invested

$373.8

Value

$271.45

PnL

-$102.35

Record

49%

1168-1203 (2371)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Vanderbilt

Invested

$215.99

Value

$253.17

PnL

+$37.18

Record

55%

1630-1336 (2966)

Pan9XARB<$100

Alabama

Invested

$335.53

Value

$128.92

PnL

+$3.52

Record

50%

1593-1619 (3212)

Both legs:

Vanderbilt$69.1656.1¢+$21.03

Alabama$71.652.3¢-$17.51

bakedbeanburrito

Vanderbilt

Invested

$127.59

Value

$127.59

PnL

+$0

Record

—

3-5 (8)

biying88888CTR

Alabama

Invested

$105

Value

$76.25

PnL

-$28.75

Record

44%

203-260 (463)

AmericaFirst1<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$63.06

Value

$66.59

PnL

+$3.53

Record

47%

99-111 (210)

MadridTime<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$59

Value

$58.39

PnL

-$0.61

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

38791873984189CTR

Alabama

Invested

$1,021.14

Value

$51.74

PnL

-$31.83

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Alabama

Invested

$68.44

Value

$41.3

PnL

-$27.14

Record

54%

286-244 (530)

CUTJALENHURTS<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$16.98

Value

$16.39

PnL

-$0.59

Record

52%

2645-2472 (5117)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Alabama

Invested

$11.6

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$0.1

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

ghorrock<$100

Vanderbilt

Invested

$7.51

Value

$8.05

PnL

+$0.54

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Alabama

Invested

$7.7

Value

$7.63

PnL

-$0.07

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Research grade

NeutralAlabama at 33%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama

9 of 17 top traders (53%)Underdog side (market favors Vanderbilt 68%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Alabama. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlabama 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrVanderbilt 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Vanderbilt 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alabama wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance34.6%

32.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$188.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

288.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.