Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (62%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
CF Trival Valderas vs. CD Leganés: O/U 3.5
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 39¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
5
Over 40%
$10.4K
$133.74
38¢ → 38.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors Under 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR | Overavg 38¢ | $9.9K | $9.3K | +$129.65 | 51% 3621-3465 (7086) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 61.5¢ | $700.55 | $689.44 | -$1.52 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
SE sentrioCTR | Overavg 38.1¢ | $320.29 | $303.32 | +$3.7 | 27% 133-354 (487) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Underavg 59.5¢ | $31.1 | $28.16 | +$1.96 | 47% 171-192 (363) |
OM omnibus-076daa<$100 | Underavg 62¢ | $3.1 | $3 | -$0.05 | 34% 147-291 (438) |
Invested
$9,851.56
Value
$9.3K
PnL
+$129.65
Record
51%
3621-3465 (7086)
Invested
$700.55
Value
$689.44
PnL
-$1.52
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Invested
$320.29
Value
$303.32
PnL
+$3.7
Record
27%
133-354 (487)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$31.1
Value
$28.16
PnL
+$1.96
Record
47%
171-192 (363)
Invested
$3.1
Value
$3
PnL
-$0.05
Record
34%
147-291 (438)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.