CF Trival Valderas vs. CD Leganés: O/U 2.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 61¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 10
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$8.1K
$191.05
60¢ → 61¢
+2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465 | Overavg 60¢ | $7.6K | $7.8K | +$190.8 | 51% 3621-3465 (7086) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 63.3¢ | $250.68 | $264.34 | -$0.27 | 50% 1275-1295 (2570) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 63.3¢ | $208.06 | $200.38 | -$4.95 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 35.6¢ | $58.46 | $63.97 | +$4.69 | |
SE sentrio<$100 | Overavg 61.4¢ | $34.05 | $34.55 | +$0.6 | 27% 133-354 (487) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 39¢ | $27.69 | $27.69 | -$0.35 | 7% 7-88 (95) |
Invested
$7,632
Value
$7.8K
PnL
+$190.8
Record
51%
3621-3465 (7086)
Invested
$250.68
Value
$264.34
PnL
-$0.27
Record
50%
1275-1295 (2570)
Both legs:
Invested
$34.05
Value
$34.55
PnL
+$0.6
Record
27%
133-354 (487)
Invested
$27.69
Value
$27.69
PnL
-$0.35
Record
7%
7-88 (95)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.