Will CDA Navalcarnero win on 2026-10-28?

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 12

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$10.43

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 97¢

+2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares1,798

Combined PnL+$8.17

Yes4 traders

Total Value$50.69

Total Shares1,122

Combined PnL+$2.26

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposh	Noavg 94¢	$743.62	$755.91	+$12.28	47% 532-590 (1122)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96¢	$719.8	$716.63	-$3.17	46% 440-515 (955)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 96.3¢	$130.53	$129.59	-$0.95	53% 6191-5476 (11667)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$88.12	$88.15	+$0.03	32% 538-1128 (1666)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.9¢	$36.11	$41.36	+$5.25	51% 2545-2464 (5009)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$20.15	$20.26	+$0.11	33% 553-1135 (1688)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 96.9¢	$9.99	$9.86	-$0.13	40% 3295-4922 (8217)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$10.9	$8.18	-$2.73	36% 209-369 (578)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.88	$0.84	-$0.03	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$0.54	$0.31	-$0.23	41% 552-797 (1349)

poshposh

Invested

$743.62

Value

$755.91

PnL

+$12.28

Record

47%

532-590 (1122)

SnakeBall

Invested

$719.8

Value

$716.63

PnL

-$3.17

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

cigarettes

Invested

$130.53

Value

$129.59

PnL

-$0.95

Record

53%

6191-5476 (11667)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$88.12

Value

$88.15

PnL

+$0.03

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$36.11

Value

$41.36

PnL

+$5.25

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$20.15

Value

$20.26

PnL

+$0.11

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$9.99

Value

$9.86

PnL

-$0.13

Record

40%

3295-4922 (8217)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.9

Value

$8.18

PnL

-$2.73

Record

36%

209-369 (578)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.84

PnL

-$0.03

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.54

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$0.23

Record

41%

552-797 (1349)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+20 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 84%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.1%

97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.