Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Levante UD, while the market favors CD Tarancón (51%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: Levante UD (-3.5)

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Levante UD (80%) · Levante UD at 49¢ · $210 held · ends Nov 5

Levante UD49¢CD Tarancón51¢Ends Thu, Nov 5, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Levante UD

Consensus Traders

Levante UD 80%

Total Value

$210.22

Combined PnL

$75.59

Smart Money Entry

29.5¢ → 49¢

+66% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralLevante UD at 49%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Levante UD

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors CD Tarancón 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Levante UD49%

CD Tarancón51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Levante UD4 traders

Total Value$199.62

Total Shares413

Combined PnL+$79.78

CD Tarancón1 trader

Total Value$10.6

Total Shares20

Combined PnL-$4.2

Levante UD — 80%CD Tarancón — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Levante UD. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLevante UD 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrLevante UD 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedLevante UD 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Levante UD 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Levante UDavg 30¢	$51	$94	+$43	50% 27765-27628 (55393)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	Levante UDavg 30¢	$58.61	$86.47	+$27.86	58% 50265-36309 (86574)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Levante UDavg 22¢	$5.6	$11.96	+$6.36	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
FL Flaznorp<$100	CD Tarancónavg 74¢	$14.8	$10.6	-$4.2	51% 24202-22938 (47140)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Levante UDavg 30.3¢	$4.63	$7.19	+$2.56	51% 7648-7364 (15012)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$51

Value

$94

PnL

+$43

Record

50%

27765-27628 (55393)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$58.61

Value

$86.47

PnL

+$27.86

Record

58%

50265-36309 (86574)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$5.6

Value

$11.96

PnL

+$6.36

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Flaznorp<$100

CD Tarancón

Invested

$14.8

Value

$10.6

PnL

-$4.2

Record

51%

24202-22938 (47140)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Levante UD

Invested

$4.63

Value

$7.19

PnL

+$2.56

Record

51%

7648-7364 (15012)

Research grade

NeutralLevante UD at 49%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Levante UD

4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors CD Tarancón 51%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Levante UD. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleLevante UD 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrLevante UD 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedLevante UD 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Levante UD 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Levante UD wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.2%

49.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$95.12

Max Loss

-$100.00

195.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.