Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (60%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
CD Anaitasuna vs. Deportivo Alavés: Both Teams to Score
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 40¢ · $251 held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
8
Yes 50%
$251.15
$55.73
28.6¢ → 40¢
+40% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
57h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 28¢ | $122.39 | $174.7 | +$52.31 | 58% 50269-36312 (86581) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $24 | $24 | +$1 | 52% 1162-1079 (2241) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $13.14 | $13.63 | +$0.49 | 51% 24233-22959 (47192) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $12.66 | $12.46 | -$0.21 | 57% 12279-9333 (21612) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12 | $12 | +$0 | 54% 1193-1031 (2224) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $7.2 | $7.2 | -$0 | 51% 1095-1048 (2143) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $3.8 | $5.84 | +$2.05 | 35% 18159-34016 (52175) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37.2¢ | $1.23 | $1.32 | +$0.09 | 51% 7653-7369 (15022) |
Invested
$122.39
Value
$174.7
PnL
+$52.31
Record
58%
50269-36312 (86581)
Invested
$24
Value
$24
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
1162-1079 (2241)
Invested
$13.14
Value
$13.63
PnL
+$0.49
Record
51%
24233-22959 (47192)
poshposh<$100Invested
$12.66
Value
$12.46
PnL
-$0.21
Record
57%
12279-9333 (21612)
Invested
$12
Value
$12
PnL
+$0
Record
54%
1193-1031 (2224)
Invested
$7.2
Value
$7.2
PnL
-$0
Record
51%
1095-1048 (2143)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$5.84
PnL
+$2.05
Record
35%
18159-34016 (52175)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.23
Value
$1.32
PnL
+$0.09
Record
51%
7653-7369 (15022)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.