Will Paris 13 Atletico vs. Red Star FC end in a draw?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 97¢ · $58 held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$58.03
$20.18
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $20.38 | $22.64 | +$2.26 | 49% 4635-4903 (9538) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $3.5 | $21 | +$17.5 | 50% 2840-2873 (5713) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 81.5¢ | $8.97 | $8.36 | -$0.61 | 38% 3806-6228 (10034) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 95.8¢ | $4.79 | $4.83 | +$0.04 | 48% 2522-2734 (5256) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.2¢ | $0.21 | $1.2 | +$0.99 | 35% 628-1146 (1774) |
Invested
$20.38
Value
$22.64
PnL
+$2.26
Record
49%
4635-4903 (9538)
Invested
$3.5
Value
$21
PnL
+$17.5
Record
50%
2840-2873 (5713)
Invested
$8.97
Value
$8.36
PnL
-$0.61
Record
38%
3806-6228 (10034)
Invested
$4.79
Value
$4.83
PnL
+$0.04
Record
48%
2522-2734 (5256)
Invested
$0.21
Value
$1.2
PnL
+$0.99
Record
35%
628-1146 (1774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.