Wright State Raiders vs. Toledo Rockets

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Wright State Raiders (33%) · Wright State Raiders at 88¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

Wright State Raiders88¢Toledo Rockets12¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

Wright State Raiders

Consensus Traders

Wright State Raiders 33%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$439.03

Smart Money Entry

78.9¢ → 88¢

+11% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidWright State Raiders at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Wright State Raiders

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Wright State Raiders88%

Toledo Rockets12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Wright State Raiders3 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,369

Combined PnL-$243.78

Toledo Rockets6 traders

Total Value$414.28

Total Shares2,491

Combined PnL-$195.25

Wright State Raiders — 33%Toledo Rockets — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Wright State Raidersavg 79.1¢	$1.5K	$1.3K	-$220.48	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Toledo Rocketsavg 31.9¢	$723.95	$409.34	-$122.89	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
└ Toledo Rockets leg	Toledo Rocketsavg 31.9¢	$513.62	$249.69	-$263.93
└ Wright State Raiders leg	Wright State Raidersavg 50.1¢	$94.64	$159.66	+$141.04
LI LimousinCTR	Toledo Rocketsavg 17.2¢	$223.9	$201.32	-$22.58	28% 284-730 (1014)
VE VenusianARB<$100	Toledo Rocketsavg 19.2¢	$170.38	$197.37	+$26.99	28% 278-729 (1007)
└ Wright State Raiders leg	Wright State Raidersavg 45¢	$66.74	$129.77	+$63.03
└ Toledo Rockets leg	Toledo Rocketsavg 19.2¢	$103.64	$67.6	-$36.04
LI LightParadoxCTR	Toledo Rocketsavg 25¢	$236.4	$146.85	-$89.55	28% 274-715 (989)
PA Pan9X<$100	Wright State Raidersavg 87¢	$75.31	$38.65	-$24.58	49% 443-470 (913)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Toledo Rocketsavg 52¢	$37.3	$30.84	-$6.46	56% 488-383 (871)
38 38791873984189CTR	Toledo Rocketsavg 37.7¢	$127.59	$25.71	-$75.62	48% 947-1017 (1964)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Wright State Raidersavg 51¢	$10.83	$12.11	+$1.27	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Toledo Rocketsavg 48¢	$7.2	$6.45	-$0.75	26% 180-518 (698)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Toledo Rocketsavg 47¢	$3.4	$3.11	-$0.29	48% 190-206 (396)

RN1

Wright State Raiders

Invested

$1,487.6

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$220.48

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$723.95

Value

$409.34

PnL

-$122.89

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

Both legs:

Toledo Rockets$513.6231.9¢-$263.93

Wright State Raiders$94.6450.1¢+$141.04

LimousinCTR

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$223.9

Value

$201.32

PnL

-$22.58

Record

28%

284-730 (1014)

VenusianARB<$100

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$170.38

Value

$197.37

PnL

+$26.99

Record

28%

278-729 (1007)

Both legs:

Wright State Raiders$66.7445¢+$63.03

Toledo Rockets$103.6419.2¢-$36.04

LightParadoxCTR

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$236.4

Value

$146.85

PnL

-$89.55

Record

28%

274-715 (989)

Pan9X<$100

Wright State Raiders

Invested

$75.31

Value

$38.65

PnL

-$24.58

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$37.3

Value

$30.84

PnL

-$6.46

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

38791873984189CTR

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$127.59

Value

$25.71

PnL

-$75.62

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Wright State Raiders

Invested

$10.83

Value

$12.11

PnL

+$1.27

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$7.2

Value

$6.45

PnL

-$0.75

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Toledo Rockets

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.11

PnL

-$0.29

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Research grade

AvoidWright State Raiders at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Wright State Raiders

3 of 9 top traders (33%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Wright State Raiders wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.