Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (91%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs. Iowa Hawkeyes: O/U 142.5
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (57%) · Under at 9.5¢ · $467 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 57%
$467.4
-$39
50¢ → 9.5¢
-81% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Over 91%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0xheavy888 | Overavg 47¢ | $215.56 | $232.33 | +$16.76 | 55% 119-96 (215) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 53.1¢ | $147.39 | $138.91 | -$8.48 | 57% 3074-2312 (5386) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 49.4¢ | $124.36 | $78.05 | -$46.32 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Overavg 46.8¢ | $9.35 | $10.12 | +$0.77 | 26% 180-518 (698) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $3.19 | $3.36 | +$0.17 | 51% 299-291 (590) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Underavg 50¢ | $5 | $3.1 | -$1.9 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 9¢ | $1.54 | $1.54 | +$0 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
0xheavy888Invested
$215.56
Value
$232.33
PnL
+$16.76
Record
55%
119-96 (215)
Invested
$147.39
Value
$138.91
PnL
-$8.48
Record
57%
3074-2312 (5386)
Invested
$124.36
Value
$78.05
PnL
-$46.32
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
Invested
$9.35
Value
$10.12
PnL
+$0.77
Record
26%
180-518 (698)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$3.19
Value
$3.36
PnL
+$0.17
Record
51%
299-291 (590)
Invested
$5
Value
$3.1
PnL
-$1.9
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
Invested
$1.54
Value
$1.54
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
9.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.