Spread: Virginia Cavaliers (-4.5)

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Maryland Terrapins (63%) · Maryland Terrapins at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Virginia Cavaliers<1¢Maryland Terrapins>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Maryland Terrapins

Consensus Traders

Maryland Terrapins 63%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

-$57.76

Smart Money Entry

69.5¢ → 99.6¢

+43% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidMaryland Terrapins at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Maryland Terrapins

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Virginia Cavaliers0%

Maryland Terrapins100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Maryland Terrapins5 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,887

Combined PnL-$64.53

Virginia Cavaliers3 traders

Total Value$404.15

Total Shares1,443

Combined PnL+$6.77

Maryland Terrapins — 63%Virginia Cavaliers — 37%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Maryland Terrapins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaryland Terrapins 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedMaryland Terrapins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Maryland Terrapins 63% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TA takeormake	Maryland Terrapinsavg 64.4¢	$718.79	$759.43	+$40.64	58% 3436-2532 (5968)
RN1	Maryland Terrapinsavg 77.6¢	$516.56	$412.4	-$104.16	56% 5073-4021 (9094)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Virginia Cavaliersavg 21.9¢	$259.4	$332.33	+$72.93	50% 3544-3611 (7155)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Maryland Terrapinsavg 85¢	$237.09	$198.04	-$39.05	55% 1350-1126 (2476)
38 38791873984189	Maryland Terrapinsavg 44¢	$66.57	$107.07	+$40.5	48% 2942-3249 (6191)
JA JAMJAMJAM4CTR	Virginia Cavaliersavg 56¢	$135.91	$67.96	-$67.96	2% 12-511 (523)
PA Pan9X<$100	Maryland Terrapinsavg 77.6¢	$28.73	$26.27	-$2.46	49% 1349-1396 (2745)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Virginia Cavaliersavg 15¢	$2.07	$3.86	+$1.79	49% 1883-1987 (3870)

takeormake

Maryland Terrapins

Invested

$718.79

Value

$759.43

PnL

+$40.64

Record

58%

3436-2532 (5968)

RN1

Maryland Terrapins

Invested

$516.56

Value

$412.4

PnL

-$104.16

Record

56%

5073-4021 (9094)

FlaznorpCTR

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$259.4

Value

$332.33

PnL

+$72.93

Record

50%

3544-3611 (7155)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Maryland Terrapins

Invested

$237.09

Value

$198.04

PnL

-$39.05

Record

55%

1350-1126 (2476)

38791873984189

Maryland Terrapins

Invested

$66.57

Value

$107.07

PnL

+$40.5

Record

48%

2942-3249 (6191)

JAMJAMJAM4CTR

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$135.91

Value

$67.96

PnL

-$67.96

Record

12-511 (523)

Pan9X<$100

Maryland Terrapins

Invested

$28.73

Value

$26.27

PnL

-$2.46

Record

49%

1349-1396 (2745)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Virginia Cavaliers

Invested

$2.07

Value

$3.86

PnL

+$1.79

Record

49%

1883-1987 (3870)

Research grade

AvoidMaryland Terrapins at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Maryland Terrapins

5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Maryland Terrapins. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrMaryland Terrapins 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedMaryland Terrapins 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Maryland Terrapins 63% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Maryland Terrapins wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.