Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Seattle Redhawks, while the market favors UTSA Roadrunners (74%). 10 of 17 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
UTSA Roadrunners vs. Seattle Redhawks
10 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold Seattle Redhawks (59%) · Seattle Redhawks at 27¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12
⚠️
Avoid
Seattle Redhawks
17
Seattle Redhawks 59%
$4.6K
$159.4
69.7¢ → 26.5¢
-62% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
AvoidSeattle Redhawks at 27%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 17 top traders (59%)Underdog side (market favors UTSA Roadrunners 74%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+11 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on Seattle Redhawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suitcase6628 | UTSA Roadrunnersavg 29.8¢ | $702.64 | $1.5K | +$841.45 | 64% 283-162 (445) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Seattle Redhawksavg 67.8¢ | $2.4K | $1.5K | -$947.43 | 46% 311-361 (672) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | UTSA Roadrunnersavg 36.7¢ | $603.12 | $691.83 | +$252.71 | 55% 750-604 (1354) |
 dips. | UTSA Roadrunnersavg 23.9¢ | $71.2 | $201.2 | +$130 | 42% 230-316 (546) |
SM smithagent | UTSA Roadrunnersavg 22.7¢ | $65.26 | $188.71 | +$123.44 | — |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR | Seattle Redhawksavg 70¢ | $364 | $171.6 | -$192.4 | 29% 180-434 (614) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Seattle Redhawksavg 93¢ | $96.98 | $96.98 | +$0 | 51% 1945-1901 (3846) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Seattle Redhawksavg 88.4¢ | $130.19 | $87.47 | -$42.72 | 48% 1454-1600 (3054) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Seattle Redhawksavg 93¢ | $43.71 | $43.71 | +$0 | 52% 128-120 (248) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100 | Seattle Redhawksavg 57¢ | $22.8 | $21.4 | -$1.4 | — |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | Seattle Redhawksavg 78.7¢ | $34.79 | $17.04 | -$4.91 | 49% 698-741 (1439) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Seattle Redhawksavg 93¢ | $16.33 | $16.33 | +$0 | 39% 407-633 (1040) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Seattle Redhawksavg 93¢ | $9.3 | $9.3 | +$0 | — |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | UTSA Roadrunnersavg 7¢ | $3.29 | $3.29 | +$0 | 38% 167-273 (440) |
FO forecastication4<$100 | UTSA Roadrunnersavg 5¢ | $1.8 | $2.53 | +$0.72 | 18% 50-224 (274) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Seattle Redhawksavg 85¢ | $1.1 | $1.14 | +$0.05 | 57% 4077-3095 (7172) |
TH thirdt1me<$100 | UTSA Roadrunnersavg 18¢ | $0.44 | $0.33 | -$0.11 | 43% 127-168 (295) |
Invested
$702.64
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$841.45
Record
64%
283-162 (445)
Invested
$2,440.25
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$947.43
Record
46%
311-361 (672)
Invested
$603.12
Value
$691.83
PnL
+$252.71
Record
55%
750-604 (1354)
dips.Invested
$71.2
Value
$201.2
PnL
+$130
Record
42%
230-316 (546)
Invested
$65.26
Value
$188.71
PnL
+$123.44
Record
—
Invested
$364
Value
$171.6
PnL
-$192.4
Record
29%
180-434 (614)
Invested
$96.98
Value
$96.98
PnL
+$0
Record
51%
1945-1901 (3846)
Invested
$130.19
Value
$87.47
PnL
-$42.72
Record
48%
1454-1600 (3054)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$43.71
Value
$43.71
PnL
+$0
Record
52%
128-120 (248)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100Invested
$22.8
Value
$21.4
PnL
-$1.4
Record
—
Invested
$34.79
Value
$17.04
PnL
-$4.91
Record
49%
698-741 (1439)
Invested
$16.33
Value
$16.33
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
407-633 (1040)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$9.3
PnL
+$0
Record
—
Invested
$3.29
Value
$3.29
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
167-273 (440)
Invested
$1.8
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$0.72
Record
18%
50-224 (274)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.14
PnL
+$0.05
Record
57%
4077-3095 (7172)
Invested
$0.44
Value
$0.33
PnL
-$0.11
Record
43%
127-168 (295)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
26.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
suitcase6628
UTSA Roadrunners — $1.5K
SnakeBall
CTRSeattle Redhawks — $1.5K
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
UTSA Roadrunners — $691.83
dips.
UTSA Roadrunners — $201.2
smithagent
UTSA Roadrunners — $188.71
0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846
CTRSeattle Redhawks — $171.6
Flaznorp
CTRSeattle Redhawks — $96.98
38791873984189
CTRSeattle Redhawks — $87.47
nigiri99
CTRSeattle Redhawks — $43.71
ARTEM-DZYUBA
CTRSeattle Redhawks — $21.4