Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles vs. IU Indy Jaguars

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold IU Indy Jaguars (57%) · IU Indy Jaguars at 65¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 11

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles36¢IU Indy Jaguars64¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

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Avoid

IU Indy Jaguars

Consensus Traders

IU Indy Jaguars 57%

5 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.2K

Combined PnL

-$28.35

Smart Money Entry

73¢ → 64.5¢

-12% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidIU Indy Jaguars at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

IU Indy Jaguars

4 of 7 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles36%

IU Indy Jaguars65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

IU Indy Jaguars4 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares2,888

Combined PnL-$49.78

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles3 traders

Total Value$103.59

Total Shares301

Combined PnL+$21.43

IU Indy Jaguars — 57%Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 65.5¢	$1.7K	$2.0K	+$284.73	51% 1908-1842 (3750)
└ IU Indy Jaguars leg	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 65.5¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$15.13
└ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles leg	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 24.2¢	$644.19	$944.05	+$299.86
SN SnakeBall	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 74.6¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$69.87	46% 292-339 (631)
CI cigarettesARB<$100	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 72¢	$646.31	$687.51	+$41.2	53% 5788-5165 (10953)
└ IU Indy Jaguars leg	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 72¢	$504	$535.5	+$31.5
└ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles leg	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 22¢	$142.31	$152.01	+$9.7
RN1ARB<$100	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 75¢	$643.73	$591.51	-$52.21	57% 4056-3070 (7126)
└ IU Indy Jaguars leg	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 75¢	$536.45	$432.7	-$103.75
└ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles leg	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 26.7¢	$107.28	$158.82	+$51.54
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 72.6¢	$408.67	$460.62	+$51.95	53% 1841-1653 (3494)
└ IU Indy Jaguars leg	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 72.6¢	$258.17	$236.53	-$21.64
└ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles leg	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 22.5¢	$150.51	$224.09	+$73.58
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 66¢	$376.58	$400.35	+$23.77	55% 718-583 (1301)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 70.6¢	$275.12	$235.2	+$8.01	48% 1420-1557 (2977)
└ IU Indy Jaguars leg	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 70.6¢	$177.22	$151.86	-$21.22
└ Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles leg	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 25.6¢	$54.12	$83.35	+$29.22
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 26.3¢	$69.68	$91.53	+$21.85	31% 405-886 (1291)
TH thirdt1me	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 72.2¢	$200	$55.11	-$4.58	43% 123-163 (286)
PA Pan9X<$100	IU Indy Jaguarsavg 71.9¢	$87.64	$44.99	+$0.91	49% 684-724 (1408)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 37¢	$11.1	$10.65	-$0.45	30% 399-910 (1309)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Southern Indiana Screaming Eaglesavg 23¢	$1.38	$1.41	+$0.03	57% 3226-2432 (5658)

FlaznorpARB<$100

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$1,668.25

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$284.73

Record

51%

1908-1842 (3750)

Both legs:

IU Indy Jaguars$1,024.0665.5¢-$15.13

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles$644.1924.2¢+$299.86

SnakeBall

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$1,700.25

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$69.87

Record

46%

292-339 (631)

cigarettesARB<$100

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$646.31

Value

$687.51

PnL

+$41.2

Record

53%

5788-5165 (10953)

Both legs:

IU Indy Jaguars$50472¢+$31.5

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles$142.3122¢+$9.7

RN1ARB<$100

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$643.73

Value

$591.51

PnL

-$52.21

Record

57%

4056-3070 (7126)

Both legs:

IU Indy Jaguars$536.4575¢-$103.75

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles$107.2826.7¢+$51.54

keeptheblueflagflyinghighARB<$100

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$408.67

Value

$460.62

PnL

+$51.95

Record

53%

1841-1653 (3494)

Both legs:

IU Indy Jaguars$258.1772.6¢-$21.64

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles$150.5122.5¢+$73.58

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$376.58

Value

$400.35

PnL

+$23.77

Record

55%

718-583 (1301)

38791873984189ARB<$100

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$275.12

Value

$235.2

PnL

+$8.01

Record

48%

1420-1557 (2977)

Both legs:

IU Indy Jaguars$177.2270.6¢-$21.22

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles$54.1225.6¢+$29.22

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Invested

$69.68

Value

$91.53

PnL

+$21.85

Record

31%

405-886 (1291)

thirdt1me

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$200

Value

$55.11

PnL

-$4.58

Record

43%

123-163 (286)

Pan9X<$100

IU Indy Jaguars

Invested

$87.64

Value

$44.99

PnL

+$0.91

Record

49%

684-724 (1408)

LimousinCTR<$100

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Invested

$11.1

Value

$10.65

PnL

-$0.45

Record

30%

399-910 (1309)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Southern Indiana Screaming Eagles

Invested

$1.38

Value

$1.41

PnL

+$0.03

Record

57%

3226-2432 (5658)

Research grade

AvoidIU Indy Jaguars at 65%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

IU Indy Jaguars

4 of 7 top traders (57%)5 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that IU Indy Jaguars wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.