Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (74%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

USC Trojans vs. California Golden Bears: O/U 160.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 26¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 12

Over26¢Under74¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$262.03

Smart Money Entry

47.3¢ → 26¢

-45% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over26%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$885.9

Total Shares1,638

Combined PnL+$24.45

Over6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares2,818

Combined PnL-$286.47

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 53¢	$916.34	$921.04	+$13.34	57% 3276-2473 (5749)
└ Under leg	Underavg 53¢	$495.83	$589.68	+$94.01
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$412.03	$331.36	-$80.67
HI hi774c	Underavg 52¢	$835.64	$859.75	+$24.11	15% 85-486 (571)
FO Forecastication2CTR	Overavg 47.8¢	$836.22	$533.14	-$303.08	38% 99-159 (258)
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 47¢	$312.55	$312.55	-$0	55% 218-176 (394)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 47.3¢	$210.74	$227.36	+$16.62	47% 1681-1866 (3547)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 51.8¢	$129.99	$81.83	-$41.77	51% 2141-2070 (4211)
└ Under leg	Underavg 69.8¢	$40.36	$42.79	+$2.43
└ Over leg	Overavg 51.8¢	$77.81	$39.05	-$44.19
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 54¢	$15.36	$15.05	-$0.31	54% 135-114 (249)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 69.7¢	$10.45	$11.1	+$0.65	49% 973-998 (1971)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 28¢	$9.19	$9.35	+$0.16	55% 843-701 (1544)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$2.35	-$0.05	35% 376-688 (1064)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$1.35	$1.23	-$0.13	57% 4155-3181 (7336)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$916.34

Value

$921.04

PnL

+$13.34

Record

57%

3276-2473 (5749)

Both legs:

Under$495.8353¢+$94.01

Over$412.0346¢-$80.67

hi774c

Under

Invested

$835.64

Value

$859.75

PnL

+$24.11

Record

15%

85-486 (571)

Forecastication2CTR

Over

Invested

$836.22

Value

$533.14

PnL

-$303.08

Record

38%

99-159 (258)

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$312.55

Value

$312.55

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

218-176 (394)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$210.74

Value

$227.36

PnL

+$16.62

Record

47%

1681-1866 (3547)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$129.99

Value

$81.83

PnL

-$41.77

Record

51%

2141-2070 (4211)

Both legs:

Under$40.3669.8¢+$2.43

Over$77.8151.8¢-$44.19

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$15.36

Value

$15.05

PnL

-$0.31

Record

54%

135-114 (249)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$10.45

Value

$11.1

PnL

+$0.65

Record

49%

973-998 (1971)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.19

Value

$9.35

PnL

+$0.16

Record

55%

843-701 (1544)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$2.35

PnL

-$0.05

Record

35%

376-688 (1064)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.35

Value

$1.23

PnL

-$0.13

Record

57%

4155-3181 (7336)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 26%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 74%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance28.0%

26.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$257.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

357.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.