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Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.

Kansas City Roos vs. George Mason Patriots: O/U 140.5

Resolved Over. 71% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.

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RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

7

Under 60%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$417.02

Combined PnL

-$581.35

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares1,395

Combined PnL-$675.77

Over2 traders

Total Value$242.02

Total Shares242

Combined PnL+$94.41

Under — 71%Over — 29%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 46.1¢	$517.98	—	-$517.98	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 41.6¢	$134.43	$125	-$9.43	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$62.5	$125	+$62.5
└ Under leg	Underavg 41.6¢	$71.93	—	-$71.93
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Overavg 47¢	$83.67	$178.02	+$94.35	54% 1122-947 (2069)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 46¢	$153.18	—	-$153.18	56% 312-248 (560)
BO BoomLaLaARB<$100	Underavg 46¢	$68.5	$50	-$18.5	29% 105-255 (360)
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$45	—	-$45
└ Over leg	Overavg 47¢	$23.5	$50	+$26.5
CoinTrick<$100	Overavg 99.9¢	$63.94	$64	+$0.06	99% 157-1 (158)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$4.6	—	-$4.6	55% 211-171 (382)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$0.01	—	-$0.01	34% 349-676 (1025)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR	Underavg 50¢	$1.6K	—	+$0	82% 97-22 (119)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Invested

$517.98

Value

—

PnL

-$517.98

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$134.43

Value

$125

PnL

-$9.43

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

Both legs:

Over$62.550¢+$62.5

Under$71.9341.6¢-$71.93

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Invested

$83.67

Value

$178.02

PnL

+$94.35

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Invested

$153.18

Value

—

PnL

-$153.18

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

BoomLaLaARB<$100

Invested

$68.5

Value

$50

PnL

-$18.5

Record

29%

105-255 (360)

Both legs:

Under$4546¢-$45

Over$23.547¢+$26.5

Invested

$63.94

Value

$64

PnL

+$0.06

Record

99%

157-1 (158)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Invested

$4.6

Value

—

PnL

-$4.6

Record

55%

211-171 (382)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR<$100

Invested

$0.01

Value

—

PnL

-$0.01

Record

34%

349-676 (1025)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesCTR

Invested

$1,600

Value

—

PnL

+$0

Record

82%

97-22 (119)

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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Market Info

Condition ID

0x024b2599...1485c5

Slug

cbb-umkc-gmsn-2026-11-12-total-140pt5

Traders in this Market

HomeRunHazard

Under — $0

Flaznorp

Arbitrage — excluded

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Over — $178.02

0xheavy888

Under — $0

BoomLaLa

Arbitrage — excluded

CoinTrick

Over — $64

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks

Under — $0

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846

Under — $0

overtimemarkets.xyz-singles

Under — $0

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