UAB Blazers vs. Jacksonville State Gamecocks: O/U 147.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 69¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 15

Over31¢Under69¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$3.9K

Combined PnL

-$48

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 69¢

+36% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over31%

Under69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares7,509

Combined PnL-$38.93

Over5 traders

Total Value$145.08

Total Shares409

Combined PnL-$9.07

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Underavg 50.6¢	$3.2K	$3.1K	-$34.37	56% 3745-2909 (6654)
HI hi774c	Underavg 50¢	$447.55	$447.55	+$0	23% 191-640 (831)
38 38791873984189<$100	Underavg 50¢	$75	$75	+$0	47% 3487-3859 (7346)
RN1<$100	Underavg 60.7¢	$75	$71.05	-$3.95	55% 5637-4683 (10320)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Overavg 32.6¢	$48.91	$62.23	+$13.32	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100	Underavg 50.6¢	$54.11	$53.5	-$0.61	53% 323-288 (611)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 36.6¢	$54.71	$47.86	-$6.85	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 48¢	$40.48	$26.99	-$13.49	54% 1599-1379 (2978)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 37.8¢	$7.55	$6.4	-$1.15	48% 2318-2517 (4835)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Overavg 50¢	$2.5	$1.6	-$0.9	41% 726-1032 (1758)

HomeRunHazard

Under

Invested

$3,151.23

Value

$3.1K

PnL

-$34.37

Record

56%

3745-2909 (6654)

hi774c

Under

Invested

$447.55

Value

$447.55

PnL

+$0

Record

23%

191-640 (831)

38791873984189<$100

Under

Invested

$75

Value

$75

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

3487-3859 (7346)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$75

Value

$71.05

PnL

-$3.95

Record

55%

5637-4683 (10320)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$48.91

Value

$62.23

PnL

+$13.32

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100

Under

Invested

$54.11

Value

$53.5

PnL

-$0.61

Record

53%

323-288 (611)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$54.71

Value

$47.86

PnL

-$6.85

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40.48

Value

$26.99

PnL

-$13.49

Record

54%

1599-1379 (2978)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$7.55

Value

$6.4

PnL

-$1.15

Record

48%

2318-2517 (4835)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.5

Value

$1.6

PnL

-$0.9

Record

41%

726-1032 (1758)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 69%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.0%

69.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$40.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

140.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.