Spread: UAB Blazers (-4.5)

4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold UAB Blazers (67%) · UAB Blazers at 50¢ · $323 held · ended Nov 15

UAB Blazers50¢Jacksonville State Gamecocks50¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UAB Blazers

Consensus Traders

UAB Blazers 67%

Total Value

$322.85

Combined PnL

$22.16

Smart Money Entry

40.5¢ → 50¢

+24% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUAB Blazers at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UAB Blazers

4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

UAB Blazers50%

Jacksonville State Gamecocks50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UAB Blazers4 traders

Total Value$190.72

Total Shares521

Combined PnL-$20

Jacksonville State Gamecocks2 traders

Total Value$132.12

Total Shares155

Combined PnL+$42.15

UAB Blazers — 67%Jacksonville State Gamecocks — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on UAB Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUAB Blazers 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000UAB Blazers 67% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FO Forecastication2	UAB Blazersavg 40¢	$110	$115.5	+$5.5	45% 281-347 (628)
FL Flaznorp	Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 58.1¢	$72.88	$106.64	+$33.76	49% 4276-4505 (8781)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	UAB Blazersavg 40¢	$50.64	$53.17	+$2.53	56% 3745-2909 (6654)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Jacksonville State Gamecocksavg 57¢	$17.09	$25.48	+$8.39	55% 1734-1418 (3152)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	UAB Blazersavg 42¢	$47.88	$19.95	-$27.93	40% 624-947 (1571)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	UAB Blazersavg 44¢	$2.2	$2.1	-$0.1	41% 726-1032 (1758)

Forecastication2

UAB Blazers

Invested

$110

Value

$115.5

PnL

+$5.5

Record

45%

281-347 (628)

Flaznorp

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Invested

$72.88

Value

$106.64

PnL

+$33.76

Record

49%

4276-4505 (8781)

HomeRunHazard<$100

UAB Blazers

Invested

$50.64

Value

$53.17

PnL

+$2.53

Record

56%

3745-2909 (6654)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Invested

$17.09

Value

$25.48

PnL

+$8.39

Record

55%

1734-1418 (3152)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

UAB Blazers

Invested

$47.88

Value

$19.95

PnL

-$27.93

Record

40%

624-947 (1571)

ameisgoat11<$100

UAB Blazers

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.1

Record

41%

726-1032 (1758)

Research grade

AvoidUAB Blazers at 50%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

UAB Blazers

4 of 6 top traders (67%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on UAB Blazers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUAB Blazers 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000UAB Blazers 67% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UAB Blazers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.2%

50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$91.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

191.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.