Temple Owls vs. La Salle Explorers: O/U 152.5

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (58%) · Over at 88¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over88¢Under12¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

$478.86

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 88¢

+84% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over88%

Under12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares2,861

Combined PnL+$472.47

Under5 traders

Total Value$238.92

Total Shares854

Combined PnL+$6.38

Over — 58%Under — 42%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VI vibing123	Overavg 48¢	$964.32	$1.4K	+$472.11	61% 1209-766 (1975)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$1.1K	$852.24	-$237.62	56% 3922-3103 (7025)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$917.08	$635.04	-$282.04
└ Over leg	Overavg 50.9¢	$172.84	$217.2	+$44.42
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$1.0K	$200	+$0	64% 145-83 (228)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$104	+$4
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$96	-$4
0xheavy888	Overavg 46¢	$151.8	$156.75	+$4.95	56% 679-534 (1213)
FO Forecastication2	Overavg 50¢	$154.21	$146.65	-$7.56	44% 339-425 (764)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$78	$77.25	-$0.75	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$51.66	$62.7	+$11.04	54% 1975-1650 (3625)
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603CTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$57.2	$52.8	-$4.4	51% 22-21 (43)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 46¢	$46	$47.5	+$1.5	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 46¢	$46	$47.5	+$1.5	39% 234-370 (604)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$30.08	$30.72	+$0.64	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100	Underavg 52¢	$15.6	$15.45	-$0.15	52% 419-387 (806)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 50¢	$5.5	$5.72	+$0.22	48% 2576-2780 (5356)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 50¢	$5	$4.75	-$0.25	43% 867-1151 (2018)

vibing123

Over

Invested

$964.32

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$472.11

Record

61%

1209-766 (1975)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,092.46

Value

$852.24

PnL

-$237.62

Record

56%

3922-3103 (7025)

Both legs:

Under$917.0852¢-$282.04

Over$172.8450.9¢+$44.42

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,000

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

145-83 (228)

Both legs:

Invested

$151.8

Value

$156.75

PnL

+$4.95

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

Forecastication2

Over

Invested

$154.21

Value

$146.65

PnL

-$7.56

Record

44%

339-425 (764)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$78

Value

$77.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$51.66

Value

$62.7

PnL

+$11.04

Record

54%

1975-1650 (3625)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$57.2

Value

$52.8

PnL

-$4.4

Record

51%

22-21 (43)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$46

Value

$47.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

BoomLaLa<$100

Over

Invested

$46

Value

$47.5

PnL

+$1.5

Record

39%

234-370 (604)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.08

Value

$30.72

PnL

+$0.64

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.6

Value

$15.45

PnL

-$0.15

Record

52%

419-387 (806)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.72

PnL

+$0.22

Record

48%

2576-2780 (5356)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$4.75

PnL

-$0.25

Record

43%

867-1151 (2018)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 88%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.