Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold La Salle Explorers, while the market favors Temple Owls (50%). 0 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Temple Owls vs. La Salle Explorers
7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold La Salle Explorers (58%) · La Salle Explorers at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
La Salle Explorers
12
La Salle Explorers 58%
$1.7K
-$6.14
51.9¢ → 50¢
-4% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
AvoidLa Salle Explorers at 50%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 12 top traders (58%)Underdog side (market favors Temple Owls 50%)10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | La Salle Explorersavg 52¢ | $744.41 | $744.61 | +$0.2 | 56% 3922-3103 (7025) |
GA gagarin59 | Temple Owlsavg 48¢ | $707.97 | $707.97 | +$0 | 44% 100-127 (227) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Temple Owlsavg 51¢ | $75.4 | $74.66 | -$0.74 | 49% 4712-4983 (9695) |
TH thirdt1me<$100 | La Salle Explorersavg 49¢ | $49 | $47.5 | -$1.5 | 47% 376-418 (794) |
 RN1<$100 | La Salle Explorersavg 55¢ | $42.88 | $38.88 | -$4.01 | 54% 6042-5119 (11161) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | La Salle Explorersavg 52¢ | $38.22 | $38.22 | +$0 | 48% 2576-2780 (5356) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100 | Temple Owlsavg 52¢ | $32.5 | $32.81 | +$0.31 | 54% 1975-1650 (3625) |
BO BoomLaLa<$100 | La Salle Explorersavg 49¢ | $20.99 | $20.35 | -$0.64 | 39% 234-370 (604) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks<$100 | La Salle Explorersavg 52¢ | $12.48 | $12.6 | +$0.12 | 52% 419-387 (806) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | La Salle Explorersavg 52¢ | $8.78 | $8.86 | +$0.08 | 48% 3997-4384 (8381) |
AM ameisgoat11<$100 | Temple Owlsavg 48¢ | $4.8 | $4.8 | +$0 | 43% 867-1151 (2018) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Temple Owlsavg 44¢ | $2.2 | $2.23 | +$0.02 | 50% 2197-2203 (4400) |
Invested
$744.41
Value
$744.61
PnL
+$0.2
Record
56%
3922-3103 (7025)
Invested
$707.97
Value
$707.97
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
100-127 (227)
Invested
$75.4
Value
$74.66
PnL
-$0.74
Record
49%
4712-4983 (9695)
Invested
$49
Value
$47.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
47%
376-418 (794)
RN1<$100Invested
$42.88
Value
$38.88
PnL
-$4.01
Record
54%
6042-5119 (11161)
Invested
$38.22
Value
$38.22
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2576-2780 (5356)
Invested
$32.5
Value
$32.81
PnL
+$0.31
Record
54%
1975-1650 (3625)
Invested
$20.99
Value
$20.35
PnL
-$0.64
Record
39%
234-370 (604)
Invested
$12.48
Value
$12.6
PnL
+$0.12
Record
52%
419-387 (806)
Invested
$8.78
Value
$8.86
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
3997-4384 (8381)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.8
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
867-1151 (2018)
Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.23
PnL
+$0.02
Record
50%
2197-2203 (4400)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
La Salle Explorers — $744.61
gagarin59
Temple Owls — $707.97
Flaznorp
Temple Owls — $74.66
thirdt1me
La Salle Explorers — $47.5
RN1
La Salle Explorers — $38.88
ferdinand2
La Salle Explorers — $38.22
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
Temple Owls — $32.81
BoomLaLa
La Salle Explorers — $20.35
0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflks
La Salle Explorers — $12.6
38791873984189
La Salle Explorers — $8.86