Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (57%). 4 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Syracuse Orange vs. Indiana Hoosiers: O/U 147.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 43¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 9

Over57¢Under43¢Ended Mon, Nov 9, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.2K

Combined PnL

$-1.6K

Smart Money Entry

51.9¢ → 43¢

-17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over57%

Under43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$5.7K

Total Shares9,167

Combined PnL+$1.4K

Under4 traders

Total Value$2.3K

Total Shares10,214

Combined PnL$-3.0K

Over — 56%Under — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 48¢	$4.2K	$5.4K	+$1.3K	30% 108-250 (358)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Underavg 52¢	$3.6K	$1.5K	$-2.0K	30% 29-67 (96)
HI hi774cCTR	Underavg 52¢	$1.7K	$735.53	-$964.36	3% 9-250 (259)
0xheavy888	Overavg 48¢	$162.44	$262.39	+$99.95	68% 30-14 (44)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 51.5¢	$385.53	$184.62	-$125.31	49% 398-410 (808)
└ Under leg	Underavg 51.5¢	$275.13	$120.15	-$151.51
└ Over leg	Overavg 46¢	$38.27	$64.47	+$26.2
RN1<$100	Overavg 45¢	$30.9	$53.22	+$22.32	54% 248-213 (461)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 47.4¢	$33.52	$30.39	-$3.13	52% 271-247 (518)
TA takeormake<$100	Overavg 58¢	$11.85	$12.77	+$0.92	27% 84-223 (307)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 48.7¢	$7.3	$11.63	+$4.33	20% 48-194 (242)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Underavg 50¢	$17	$7.65	-$9.35	52% 190-176 (366)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$4,185.7

Value

$5.4K

PnL

+$1.3K

Record

30%

108-250 (358)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Under

Invested

$3,555.52

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-2.0K

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

hi774cCTR

Under

Invested

$1,699.89

Value

$735.53

PnL

-$964.36

Record

9-250 (259)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$162.44

Value

$262.39

PnL

+$99.95

Record

68%

30-14 (44)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$385.53

Value

$184.62

PnL

-$125.31

Record

49%

398-410 (808)

Both legs:

Under$275.1351.5¢-$151.51

Over$38.2746¢+$26.2

RN1<$100

Over

Invested

$30.9

Value

$53.22

PnL

+$22.32

Record

54%

248-213 (461)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.52

Value

$30.39

PnL

-$3.13

Record

52%

271-247 (518)

takeormake<$100

Over

Invested

$11.85

Value

$12.77

PnL

+$0.92

Record

27%

84-223 (307)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$7.3

Value

$11.63

PnL

+$4.33

Record

20%

48-194 (242)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$9.35

Record

52%

190-176 (366)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 43%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)Underdog side (market favors Over 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (9 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.2%

43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$121.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

221.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.