Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (64%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Seton Hall Pirates vs. Alabama Crimson Tide: O/U 156.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 36¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 67%
$2.5K
$241.74
50.9¢ → 36¢
-29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 36%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 51¢ | $1.7K | $2.0K | +$293.64 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Overavg 49.8¢ | $264.63 | $266.02 | +$1.38 | 55% 1350-1126 (2476) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 50¢ | $250 | $192.5 | -$57.5 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 52.8¢ | $25.89 | $29.89 | +$4 | 55% 250-204 (454) |
FO Forecastication2<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $20.64 | $21.5 | +$0.86 | 45% 224-276 (500) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $3.6 | $2.95 | -$0.65 | 56% 5073-4021 (9094) |
Invested
$1,678.44
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$293.64
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
Invested
$264.63
Value
$266.02
PnL
+$1.38
Record
55%
1350-1126 (2476)
Invested
$250
Value
$192.5
PnL
-$57.5
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$25.89
Value
$29.89
PnL
+$4
Record
55%
250-204 (454)
Invested
$20.64
Value
$21.5
PnL
+$0.86
Record
45%
224-276 (500)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$3.6
Value
$2.95
PnL
-$0.65
Record
56%
5073-4021 (9094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.