Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-15.5)
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Seton Hall Pirates (71%) · Seton Hall Pirates at 73¢ · $696 held · ended Nov 14
⚠️
Avoid
Seton Hall Pirates
7
Seton Hall Pirates 71%
$696.02
-$48.81
52¢ → 72.5¢
+39% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidSeton Hall Pirates at 73%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Alabama Crimson Tideavg 55¢ | $203.5 | $203.5 | +$0 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Seton Hall Piratesavg 63¢ | $170.27 | $121.62 | -$48.65 | 55% 1350-1126 (2476) |
 RN1 | Seton Hall Piratesavg 45¢ | $117 | $117 | +$0 | 56% 5073-4021 (9094) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Alabama Crimson Tideavg 57¢ | $118.56 | $114.4 | -$4.16 | 57% 3570-2717 (6287) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singles | Seton Hall Piratesavg 50¢ | $300 | $90 | +$4 | 73% 119-43 (162) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Seton Hall Piratesavg 45¢ | $42.75 | $42.75 | +$0 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
PA Pan9X<$100 | Seton Hall Piratesavg 45¢ | $6.75 | $6.75 | +$0 | 49% 1349-1396 (2745) |
Invested
$203.5
Value
$203.5
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$170.27
Value
$121.62
PnL
-$48.65
Record
55%
1350-1126 (2476)
RN1Invested
$117
Value
$117
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
5073-4021 (9094)
Invested
$118.56
Value
$114.4
PnL
-$4.16
Record
57%
3570-2717 (6287)
Invested
$300
Value
$90
PnL
+$4
Record
73%
119-43 (162)
Invested
$42.75
Value
$42.75
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
Invested
$6.75
Value
$6.75
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
1349-1396 (2745)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
CTRAlabama Crimson Tide — $203.5
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
Seton Hall Pirates — $121.62
RN1
Seton Hall Pirates — $117
HomeRunHazard
CTRAlabama Crimson Tide — $114.4
overtimemarkets.xyz-singles
Seton Hall Pirates — $90
38791873984189
Seton Hall Pirates — $42.75
Pan9X
Seton Hall Pirates — $6.75