Seton Hall Pirates vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Alabama Crimson Tide (75%) · Alabama Crimson Tide at 99¢ · $16K held · ended Nov 14

Seton Hall Pirates1¢Alabama Crimson Tide99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Alabama Crimson Tide

Consensus Traders

Alabama Crimson Tide 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$16.3K

Combined PnL

$1.9K

Smart Money Entry

92.6¢ → 99¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidAlabama Crimson Tide at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama Crimson Tide

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Seton Hall Pirates1%

Alabama Crimson Tide99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Alabama Crimson Tide6 traders

Total Value$13.7K

Total Shares13,871

Combined PnL+$699.84

Seton Hall Pirates2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares11,087

Combined PnL+$1.2K

Alabama Crimson Tide — 75%Seton Hall Pirates — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Alabama Crimson Tide. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlabama Crimson Tide 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAlabama Crimson Tide 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlabama Crimson Tide 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alabama Crimson Tide 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CUTJALENHURTS	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 93¢	$11.1K	$11.8K	+$721.24	52% 2623-2458 (5081)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Seton Hall Piratesavg 7¢	$773.66	$2.0K	+$1.2K	51% 2364-2297 (4661)
RN1	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 87.1¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$26.68	56% 5043-4004 (9047)
FL Flaznorp	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 95.5¢	$706.42	$647.34	-$45.83	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Seton Hall Piratesavg 45.2¢	$795.74	$590.47	+$40.55	53% 750-669 (1419)
└ Alabama Crimson Tide leg	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 50¢	$262.5	$430.5	+$281.94
└ Seton Hall Pirates leg	Seton Hall Piratesavg 45.2¢	$401.37	$159.97	-$241.4
38 38791873984189	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 88.1¢	$247.5	$99.14	+$3.41	48% 2922-3218 (6140)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 87.9¢	$58.63	$54.67	-$3.96	54% 1316-1100 (2416)
PA Pan9X	Alabama Crimson Tideavg 95.3¢	$126.76	$15.12	-$1.71	49% 1329-1376 (2705)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Seton Hall Piratesavg 8.8¢	$9.46	$8.64	+$4.37	49% 1865-1975 (3840)

CUTJALENHURTS

Alabama Crimson Tide

Invested

$11,086.89

Value

$11.8K

PnL

+$721.24

Record

52%

2623-2458 (5081)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$773.66

Value

$2.0K

PnL

+$1.2K

Record

51%

2364-2297 (4661)

RN1

Alabama Crimson Tide

Invested

$1,014.74

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$26.68

Record

56%

5043-4004 (9047)

Flaznorp

Alabama Crimson Tide

Invested

$706.42

Value

$647.34

PnL

-$45.83

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

NotJumpARB<$100

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$795.74

Value

$590.47

PnL

+$40.55

Record

53%

750-669 (1419)

Both legs:

Alabama Crimson Tide$262.550¢+$281.94

Seton Hall Pirates$401.3745.2¢-$241.4

38791873984189

Alabama Crimson Tide

Invested

$247.5

Value

$99.14

PnL

+$3.41

Record

48%

2922-3218 (6140)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Alabama Crimson Tide

Invested

$58.63

Value

$54.67

PnL

-$3.96

Record

54%

1316-1100 (2416)

Pan9X

Alabama Crimson Tide

Invested

$126.76

Value

$15.12

PnL

-$1.71

Record

49%

1329-1376 (2705)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Seton Hall Pirates

Invested

$9.46

Value

$8.64

PnL

+$4.37

Record

49%

1865-1975 (3840)

Research grade

AvoidAlabama Crimson Tide at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Alabama Crimson Tide

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on Alabama Crimson Tide. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleAlabama Crimson Tide 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrAlabama Crimson Tide 50% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedAlabama Crimson Tide 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Alabama Crimson Tide 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Alabama Crimson Tide wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.