San Diego State Aztecs vs. New Mexico State Aggies
1 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold San Diego State Aztecs (14%) · San Diego State Aztecs at 92¢ · $780 held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
San Diego State Aztecs
7
San Diego State Aztecs 14%
1 arb excluded
$780.19
$22.73
Research grade
AvoidSan Diego State Aztecs at 92%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 7 top traders (14%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | San Diego State Aztecsavg 87¢ | $669.23 | $680.77 | +$11.54 | 56% 3926-3105 (7031) |
 RN1ARB<$100 | San Diego State Aztecsavg 90¢ | $52.08 | $56.33 | +$4.25 | 54% 6095-5185 (11280) |
| └ San Diego State Aztecs leg | San Diego State Aztecsavg 90¢ | $30.33 | $30.5 | +$0.17 | |
| └ New Mexico State Aggies leg | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 8¢ | $21.75 | $25.83 | +$4.08 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 8.1¢ | $11.61 | $16.51 | +$4.9 | 46% 1234-1428 (2662) |
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 8¢ | $8 | $11.5 | +$3.5 | 47% 383-426 (809) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 8¢ | $6.08 | $8.74 | +$2.66 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 8.4¢ | $2.03 | $2.79 | +$0.76 | 50% 2215-2229 (4444) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 10¢ | $3.17 | $2.69 | -$0.48 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 10¢ | $1 | $0.85 | -$0.15 | 48% 2643-2871 (5514) |
Invested
$669.23
Value
$680.77
PnL
+$11.54
Record
56%
3926-3105 (7031)
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$52.08
Value
$56.33
PnL
+$4.25
Record
54%
6095-5185 (11280)
Both legs:
Invested
$11.61
Value
$16.51
PnL
+$4.9
Record
46%
1234-1428 (2662)
Invested
$8
Value
$11.5
PnL
+$3.5
Record
47%
383-426 (809)
Invested
$6.08
Value
$8.74
PnL
+$2.66
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
Invested
$2.03
Value
$2.79
PnL
+$0.76
Record
50%
2215-2229 (4444)
Invested
$3.17
Value
$2.69
PnL
-$0.48
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.85
PnL
-$0.15
Record
48%
2643-2871 (5514)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
San Diego State Aztecs — $680.77
RN1
ARBArbitrage — excluded
SnakeBall
CTRNew Mexico State Aggies — $16.51
thirdt1me
CTRNew Mexico State Aggies — $11.5
38791873984189
CTRNew Mexico State Aggies — $8.74
Pan9X
CTRNew Mexico State Aggies — $2.79
Flaznorp
CTRNew Mexico State Aggies — $2.69
ferdinand2
CTRNew Mexico State Aggies — $0.85