Spread: San Diego State Aztecs (-12.5)
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold San Diego State Aztecs (20%) · San Diego State Aztecs at 51¢ · $651 held · ended Nov 15
⚠️
Avoid
San Diego State Aztecs
5
San Diego State Aztecs 20%
$650.77
$11
Research grade
AvoidSan Diego State Aztecs at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 49¢ | $277.32 | $288.64 | +$11.32 | 47% 676-773 (1449) |
FO forecastication4 | San Diego State Aztecsavg 51¢ | $288.64 | $277.32 | -$11.32 | 36% 210-367 (577) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 44¢ | $44 | $51 | +$7 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
PA Pan9XCTR<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 44¢ | $19.8 | $22.95 | +$3.15 | 50% 2215-2229 (4444) |
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100 | New Mexico State Aggiesavg 47¢ | $10.01 | $10.86 | +$0.85 | 56% 3926-3105 (7031) |
Invested
$277.32
Value
$288.64
PnL
+$11.32
Record
47%
676-773 (1449)
Invested
$288.64
Value
$277.32
PnL
-$11.32
Record
36%
210-367 (577)
Invested
$44
Value
$51
PnL
+$7
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
Invested
$19.8
Value
$22.95
PnL
+$3.15
Record
50%
2215-2229 (4444)
Invested
$10.01
Value
$10.86
PnL
+$0.85
Record
56%
3926-3105 (7031)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
51.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.