Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (63%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Richmond Spiders vs. Southern Illinois Salukis: O/U 152.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 38¢ · $111 held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$110.74
-$436.24
52.7¢ → 37.5¢
-29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 38%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Over 63%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | Underavg 53¢ | $510.7 | $93.34 | -$417.36 | 57% 3461-2635 (6096) |
HI hi774c<$100 | Overavg 46¢ | $9.69 | $10.32 | +$0.63 | 19% 127-534 (661) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Underavg 51¢ | $17.34 | $3.06 | -$14.28 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Underavg 9¢ | $0.46 | $2.58 | +$2.13 | 54% 1122-947 (2069) |
0X 0x8g68hBa8tyH1946Bhjb674g3fuyUIGYUi4uhflksCTR<$100 | Underavg 55¢ | $8.8 | $1.44 | -$7.36 | 55% 213-176 (389) |
Invested
$510.7
Value
$93.34
PnL
-$417.36
Record
57%
3461-2635 (6096)
Invested
$9.69
Value
$10.32
PnL
+$0.63
Record
19%
127-534 (661)
Invested
$17.34
Value
$3.06
PnL
-$14.28
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
Invested
$0.46
Value
$2.58
PnL
+$2.13
Record
54%
1122-947 (2069)
Invested
$8.8
Value
$1.44
PnL
-$7.36
Record
55%
213-176 (389)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.