Richmond Spiders vs. Southern Illinois Salukis

7 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Southern Illinois Salukis (58%) · Southern Illinois Salukis at 81¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 13

Richmond Spiders20¢Southern Illinois Salukis80¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Southern Illinois Salukis

Consensus Traders

Southern Illinois Salukis 58%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.3K

Combined PnL

$231.45

Smart Money Entry

58.3¢ → 80.5¢

+38% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidSouthern Illinois Salukis at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Southern Illinois Salukis

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Richmond Spiders20%

Southern Illinois Salukis81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Southern Illinois Salukis7 traders

Total Value$2.6K

Total Shares3,237

Combined PnL+$676.8

Richmond Spiders5 traders

Total Value$559.11

Total Shares2,641

Combined PnL-$445.35

Southern Illinois Salukis — 58%Richmond Spiders — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Southern Illinois Salukis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRichmond Spiders 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouthern Illinois Salukis 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Southern Illinois Salukis 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 66¢	$923.4	$1.1K	+$173.58	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
nigiri99	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 44¢	$455.84	$818.44	+$362.6	52% 399-371 (770)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Richmond Spidersavg 43.2¢	$1.0K	$557.64	-$384.1	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
└ Richmond Spiders leg	Richmond Spidersavg 43.2¢	$776.32	$368.47	-$407.85
└ Southern Illinois Salukis leg	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 72.3¢	$171.95	$189.16	+$23.74
NO NotJumpARB<$100	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 50¢	$525	$530.25	+$5.25	54% 545-473 (1018)
└ Southern Illinois Salukis leg	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 50¢	$262.5	$414.75	+$152.25
└ Richmond Spiders leg	Richmond Spidersavg 50¢	$262.5	$115.5	-$147
TH thirdt1me	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 69.3¢	$253.16	$290.48	+$37.33	46% 183-214 (397)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR	Richmond Spidersavg 21¢	$278.14	$271.52	-$6.62	44% 93-116 (209)
38 38791873984189	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 62.5¢	$205.21	$260.97	+$55.76	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
GA gagarin59CTR	Richmond Spidersavg 56¢	$637.28	$250.36	-$386.92	41% 50-71 (121)
0X 0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603<$100	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 44¢	$47.96	$86.11	+$38.15	— 7-8 (15)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 78.6¢	$38.98	$39.2	+$0.22	54% 1122-947 (2069)
PA Pan9X<$100	Southern Illinois Salukisavg 51.3¢	$25.48	$34.65	+$9.17	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Richmond Spidersavg 56¢	$61.7	$23.14	-$38.56	56% 324-253 (577)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Richmond Spidersavg 40.1¢	$31.31	$13.53	-$12.24	49% 1475-1523 (2998)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Richmond Spidersavg 61¢	$1.56	$0.56	-$1	29% 113-278 (391)

RN1

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$923.4

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$173.58

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

nigiri99

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$455.84

Value

$818.44

PnL

+$362.6

Record

52%

399-371 (770)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Richmond Spiders

Invested

$1,030.62

Value

$557.64

PnL

-$384.1

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

Both legs:

Richmond Spiders$776.3243.2¢-$407.85

Southern Illinois Salukis$171.9572.3¢+$23.74

NotJumpARB<$100

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$525

Value

$530.25

PnL

+$5.25

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

Both legs:

Southern Illinois Salukis$262.550¢+$152.25

Richmond Spiders$262.550¢-$147

thirdt1me

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$253.16

Value

$290.48

PnL

+$37.33

Record

46%

183-214 (397)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554CTR

Richmond Spiders

Invested

$278.14

Value

$271.52

PnL

-$6.62

Record

44%

93-116 (209)

38791873984189

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$205.21

Value

$260.97

PnL

+$55.76

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

gagarin59CTR

Richmond Spiders

Invested

$637.28

Value

$250.36

PnL

-$386.92

Record

41%

50-71 (121)

0x0c154c190E293B7e5F8D453b5F690C4dC9599A45-1775083003603<$100

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$47.96

Value

$86.11

PnL

+$38.15

Record

—

7-8 (15)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$38.98

Value

$39.2

PnL

+$0.22

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

Pan9X<$100

Southern Illinois Salukis

Invested

$25.48

Value

$34.65

PnL

+$9.17

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Richmond Spiders

Invested

$61.7

Value

$23.14

PnL

-$38.56

Record

56%

324-253 (577)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Richmond Spiders

Invested

$31.31

Value

$13.53

PnL

-$12.24

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Richmond Spiders

Invested

$1.56

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$1

Record

29%

113-278 (391)

Research grade

AvoidSouthern Illinois Salukis at 81%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Southern Illinois Salukis

7 of 12 top traders (58%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

64% of non-arb traders are on Southern Illinois Salukis. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrRichmond Spiders 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedSouthern Illinois Salukis 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Southern Illinois Salukis 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Southern Illinois Salukis wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.