Princeton Tigers vs. Siena Saints

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Siena Saints (50%) · Siena Saints at 72¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 8

Princeton Tigers28¢Siena Saints72¢Ended Sun, Nov 8, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Siena Saints

Consensus Traders

Siena Saints 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.9K

Combined PnL

$592.72

Smart Money Entry

48.4¢ → 71.5¢

+48% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidSiena Saints at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Siena Saints

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Princeton Tigers28%

Siena Saints72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Siena Saints4 traders

Total Value$4.6K

Total Shares6,762

Combined PnL+$665.63

Princeton Tigers4 traders

Total Value$290.19

Total Shares685

Combined PnL-$72.91

Siena Saints — 50%Princeton Tigers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Siena Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Siena Saints) and the top 1000 (8 on Princeton Tigers) disagree here.

whalePrinceton Tigers 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrPrinceton Tigers 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedSiena Saints 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Princeton Tigers 50% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Siena Saintsavg 46¢	$2.3K	$2.9K	+$576.06	45% 14412-17706 (32118)
SN SnakeBall	Siena Saintsavg 53.3¢	$1.6K	$1.7K	+$86.99	50% 48537-48152 (96689)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Princeton Tigersavg 44.2¢	$962.5	$848.23	-$114.27	51% 46870-44196 (91066)
└ Princeton Tigers leg	Princeton Tigersavg 44.2¢	$630.4	$491.71	-$138.69
└ Siena Saints leg	Siena Saintsavg 61¢	$332.1	$356.52	+$24.42
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Princeton Tigersavg 54¢	$522.81	$626.17	-$95.08	56% 8592-6809 (15401)
└ Siena Saints leg	Siena Saintsavg 49¢	$292.98	$349.78	-$11.83
└ Princeton Tigers leg	Princeton Tigersavg 54¢	$359.64	$276.39	-$83.25
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Siena Saintsavg 47.9¢	$311.98	$283.99	+$13.51	48% 70219-75923 (146142)
└ Siena Saints leg	Siena Saintsavg 47.9¢	$150.38	$205.67	+$55.29
└ Princeton Tigers leg	Princeton Tigersavg 52.1¢	$118.33	$78.32	-$41.79
RN1ARB<$100	Siena Saintsavg 58¢	$242.71	$249.76	+$7.05	53% 70164-61737 (131901)
└ Siena Saints leg	Siena Saintsavg 58¢	$143.26	$161.79	+$18.53
└ Princeton Tigers leg	Princeton Tigersavg 39¢	$99.45	$87.98	-$11.48
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Princeton Tigersavg 52¢	$129.87	$92.41	-$37.46	57% 17050-13014 (30064)
VeryLucky888CTR	Princeton Tigersavg 54¢	$108	$83	-$25	59% 52299-37045 (89344)
BA BayupatiCTR<$100	Princeton Tigersavg 52¢	$57.29	$60.05	+$2.75	49% 280-287 (567)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Princeton Tigersavg 51.9¢	$67.94	$54.73	-$13.2	54% 19942-16823 (36765)
PA Pan9X<$100	Siena Saintsavg 48.1¢	$40.85	$43.46	+$2.62	52% 27099-24604 (51703)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Siena Saintsavg 46¢	$5	$2.28	-$0.03	52% 9470-8570 (18040)

nigiri99

Siena Saints

Invested

$2,294.65

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$576.06

Record

45%

14412-17706 (32118)

SnakeBall

Siena Saints

Invested

$1,577.21

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$86.99

Record

50%

48537-48152 (96689)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Princeton Tigers

Invested

$962.5

Value

$848.23

PnL

-$114.27

Record

51%

46870-44196 (91066)

Both legs:

Princeton Tigers$630.444.2¢-$138.69

Siena Saints$332.161¢+$24.42

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Princeton Tigers

Invested

$522.81

Value

$626.17

PnL

-$95.08

Record

56%

8592-6809 (15401)

Both legs:

Siena Saints$292.9849¢-$11.83

Princeton Tigers$359.6454¢-$83.25

38791873984189ARB<$100

Siena Saints

Invested

$311.98

Value

$283.99

PnL

+$13.51

Record

48%

70219-75923 (146142)

Both legs:

Siena Saints$150.3847.9¢+$55.29

Princeton Tigers$118.3352.1¢-$41.79

RN1ARB<$100

Siena Saints

Invested

$242.71

Value

$249.76

PnL

+$7.05

Record

53%

70164-61737 (131901)

Both legs:

Siena Saints$143.2658¢+$18.53

Princeton Tigers$99.4539¢-$11.48

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Princeton Tigers

Invested

$129.87

Value

$92.41

PnL

-$37.46

Record

57%

17050-13014 (30064)

VeryLucky888CTR

Princeton Tigers

Invested

$108

Value

$83

PnL

-$25

Record

59%

52299-37045 (89344)

BayupatiCTR<$100

Princeton Tigers

Invested

$57.29

Value

$60.05

PnL

+$2.75

Record

49%

280-287 (567)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Princeton Tigers

Invested

$67.94

Value

$54.73

PnL

-$13.2

Record

54%

19942-16823 (36765)

Pan9X<$100

Siena Saints

Invested

$40.85

Value

$43.46

PnL

+$2.62

Record

52%

27099-24604 (51703)

ameisgoat11<$100

Siena Saints

Invested

Value

$2.28

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

9470-8570 (18040)

Research grade

AvoidSiena Saints at 72%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Siena Saints

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 78%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Siena Saints. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 78% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Siena Saints) and the top 1000 (8 on Princeton Tigers) disagree here.

whalePrinceton Tigers 67% · 3

Diverging

ctrPrinceton Tigers 50% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedSiena Saints 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Princeton Tigers 50% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Siena Saints wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.