Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (83%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Portland Pilots vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors: O/U 158.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (80%) · Over at 18¢ · $551 held · ended Nov 10
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 80%
1 arb excluded
$551.13
-$220.44
45¢ → 17.5¢
-61% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 18%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Under 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shiifooCTR | Overavg 46.1¢ | $432.24 | $243.83 | -$188.41 | 63% 1294-775 (2069) |
HO HomeRunHazard | Underavg 52¢ | $117.3 | $153.29 | +$35.99 | 57% 3062-2301 (5363) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 46¢ | $138.41 | $72.21 | -$66.2 | 54% 1588-1335 (2923) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Overavg 51.1¢ | $98.07 | $61.96 | -$36.1 | 50% 1362-1381 (2743) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 51.1¢ | $75.95 | $38.64 | -$37.31 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 70.2¢ | $22.12 | $23.32 | +$1.21 | |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Overavg 26.9¢ | $19.26 | $18.64 | -$0.62 | 56% 477-378 (855) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Overavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $1.2 | -$1.2 | 21% 127-474 (601) |
Invested
$432.24
Value
$243.83
PnL
-$188.41
Record
63%
1294-775 (2069)
Invested
$117.3
Value
$153.29
PnL
+$35.99
Record
57%
3062-2301 (5363)
Invested
$138.41
Value
$72.21
PnL
-$66.2
Record
54%
1588-1335 (2923)
Invested
$98.07
Value
$61.96
PnL
-$36.1
Record
50%
1362-1381 (2743)
Both legs:
Invested
$19.26
Value
$18.64
PnL
-$0.62
Record
56%
477-378 (855)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$1.2
PnL
-$1.2
Record
21%
127-474 (601)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.