Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Portland Pilots, while the market favors Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (69%). 5 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (-7.5)

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Portland Pilots (71%) · Portland Pilots at 32¢ · $833 held · ended Nov 10

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors69¢Portland Pilots31¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Portland Pilots

Consensus Traders

Portland Pilots 71%

Total Value

$832.76

Combined PnL

$54.05

Smart Money Entry

46.3¢ → 31.5¢

-32% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidPortland Pilots at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Portland Pilots

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors69%

Portland Pilots32%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Portland Pilots5 traders

Total Value$575.26

Total Shares1,163

Combined PnL+$32.05

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors2 traders

Total Value$257.5

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$22

Portland Pilots — 71%Hawaii Rainbow Warriors — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Portland Pilots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPortland Pilots 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPortland Pilots 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Portland Pilots 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888CTR	Portland Pilotsavg 46¢	$311.2	$331.28	+$20.08	57% 70-52 (122)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 47¢	$211.5	$231.75	+$20.25	56% 403-323 (726)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Portland Pilotsavg 46¢	$148.58	$158.27	+$9.69	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Portland Pilotsavg 49¢	$48.35	$48.4	+$0.05	57% 3010-2261 (5271)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Portland Pilotsavg 46¢	$32.72	$34.86	+$2.13	27% 133-354 (487)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Hawaii Rainbow Warriorsavg 48¢	$24	$25.75	+$1.75	12% 22-166 (188)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Portland Pilotsavg 47¢	$2.35	$2.45	+$0.1	20% 113-461 (574)

0xheavy888CTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$311.2

Value

$331.28

PnL

+$20.08

Record

57%

70-52 (122)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$211.5

Value

$231.75

PnL

+$20.25

Record

56%

403-323 (726)

FlaznorpCTR

Portland Pilots

Invested

$148.58

Value

$158.27

PnL

+$9.69

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Portland Pilots

Invested

$48.35

Value

$48.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

sentrioCTR<$100

Portland Pilots

Invested

$32.72

Value

$34.86

PnL

+$2.13

Record

27%

133-354 (487)

BoomLaLa<$100

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

Invested

$24

Value

$25.75

PnL

+$1.75

Record

12%

22-166 (188)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Portland Pilots

Invested

$2.35

Value

$2.45

PnL

+$0.1

Record

20%

113-461 (574)

Research grade

AvoidPortland Pilots at 32%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Portland Pilots

5 of 7 top traders (71%)Underdog side (market favors Hawaii Rainbow Warriors 69%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Portland Pilots. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpPortland Pilots 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrPortland Pilots 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Portland Pilots 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Portland Pilots wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance33.6%

31.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$197.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

297.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.