Oklahoma State Cowboys vs. Texas A&M Aggies

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Texas A&M Aggies (50%) · Texas A&M Aggies at 83¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Oklahoma State Cowboys18¢Texas A&M Aggies82¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Texas A&M Aggies

Consensus Traders

Texas A&M Aggies 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$7.37

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 82.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTexas A&M Aggies at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Texas A&M Aggies

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Oklahoma State Cowboys18%

Texas A&M Aggies83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma State Cowboys6 traders

Total Value$710.54

Total Shares1,474

Combined PnL-$33.07

Texas A&M Aggies6 traders

Total Value$579.4

Total Shares655

Combined PnL+$25.7

Oklahoma State Cowboys — 50%Texas A&M Aggies — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpCTR	Oklahoma State Cowboysavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	54% 545-473 (1018)
FL Flaznorp	Texas A&M Aggiesavg 80.8¢	$256.88	$243.33	+$5.54	51% 2892-2823 (5715)
38 38791873984189	Texas A&M Aggiesavg 78.1¢	$240.18	$155.6	+$17.26	47% 2408-2683 (5091)
RN1ARB<$100	Oklahoma State Cowboysavg 19.4¢	$107.19	$110.14	+$2.95	56% 4632-3618 (8250)
└ Texas A&M Aggies leg	Texas A&M Aggiesavg 71¢	$51.38	$59.7	+$8.33
└ Oklahoma State Cowboys leg	Oklahoma State Cowboysavg 19.4¢	$55.81	$50.44	-$5.37
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Texas A&M Aggiesavg 81.4¢	$100.09	$99.63	-$0.46	54% 1122-947 (2069)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Oklahoma State Cowboysavg 23¢	$113.11	$93.44	-$19.67	48% 627-689 (1316)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Oklahoma State Cowboysavg 23.1¢	$68.63	$45.37	-$9.46	52% 881-800 (1681)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Texas A&M Aggiesavg 75¢	$45.39	$43.03	-$2.36	57% 3461-2635 (6096)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	Oklahoma State Cowboysavg 18.8¢	$55.48	$40.82	-$2.62	58% 3342-2409 (5751)
PA Pan9X<$100	Texas A&M Aggiesavg 80¢	$44.04	$30.53	+$1.46	49% 1103-1157 (2260)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Texas A&M Aggiesavg 70.4¢	$41.52	$7.29	+$4.27	46% 183-214 (397)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Oklahoma State Cowboysavg 24¢	$6.21	$4.92	-$1.29	29% 113-278 (391)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Oklahoma State Cowboysavg 17¢	$1.02	$0.99	-$0.03	49% 1475-1523 (2998)

NotJumpCTR

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

545-473 (1018)

Flaznorp

Texas A&M Aggies

Invested

$256.88

Value

$243.33

PnL

+$5.54

Record

51%

2892-2823 (5715)

38791873984189

Texas A&M Aggies

Invested

$240.18

Value

$155.6

PnL

+$17.26

Record

47%

2408-2683 (5091)

RN1ARB<$100

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Invested

$107.19

Value

$110.14

PnL

+$2.95

Record

56%

4632-3618 (8250)

Both legs:

Texas A&M Aggies$51.3871¢+$8.33

Oklahoma State Cowboys$55.8119.4¢-$5.37

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Texas A&M Aggies

Invested

$100.09

Value

$99.63

PnL

-$0.46

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

SnakeBallCTR

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Invested

$113.11

Value

$93.44

PnL

-$19.67

Record

48%

627-689 (1316)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Invested

$68.63

Value

$45.37

PnL

-$9.46

Record

52%

881-800 (1681)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Texas A&M Aggies

Invested

$45.39

Value

$43.03

PnL

-$2.36

Record

57%

3461-2635 (6096)

takeormakeCTR<$100

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Invested

$55.48

Value

$40.82

PnL

-$2.62

Record

58%

3342-2409 (5751)

Pan9X<$100

Texas A&M Aggies

Invested

$44.04

Value

$30.53

PnL

+$1.46

Record

49%

1103-1157 (2260)

thirdt1me<$100

Texas A&M Aggies

Invested

$41.52

Value

$7.29

PnL

+$4.27

Record

46%

183-214 (397)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Invested

$6.21

Value

$4.92

PnL

-$1.29

Record

29%

113-278 (391)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Oklahoma State Cowboys

Invested

$1.02

Value

$0.99

PnL

-$0.03

Record

49%

1475-1523 (2998)

Research grade

AvoidTexas A&M Aggies at 83%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Texas A&M Aggies

6 of 12 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Texas A&M Aggies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance84.2%

82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$18.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

118.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.