Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold East Carolina Pirates, while the market favors North Carolina A&T Aggies (56%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Spread: East Carolina Pirates (-11.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold East Carolina Pirates (60%) · East Carolina Pirates at 44¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
East Carolina Pirates
5
East Carolina Pirates 60%
$1.3K
$29.25
46.9¢ → 44¢
-6% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidEast Carolina Pirates at 44%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors North Carolina A&T Aggies 56%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on East Carolina Pirates. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazardCTR | East Carolina Piratesavg 46¢ | $705.22 | $735.72 | +$30.5 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | East Carolina Piratesavg 49¢ | $293.32 | $287.33 | -$5.99 | 53% 1833-1635 (3468) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 51¢ | $254.29 | $259.28 | +$4.99 | 55% 715-580 (1295) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 52¢ | $26 | $25.75 | -$0.25 | 51% 1861-1809 (3670) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | East Carolina Piratesavg 48¢ | $2.4 | $2.4 | +$0 | 33% 307-627 (934) |
Invested
$705.22
Value
$735.72
PnL
+$30.5
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$293.32
Value
$287.33
PnL
-$5.99
Record
53%
1833-1635 (3468)
Invested
$254.29
Value
$259.28
PnL
+$4.99
Record
55%
715-580 (1295)
Invested
$26
Value
$25.75
PnL
-$0.25
Record
51%
1861-1809 (3670)
Invested
$2.4
Value
$2.4
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
307-627 (934)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
HomeRunHazard
CTREast Carolina Pirates — $735.72
keeptheblueflagflyinghigh
CTREast Carolina Pirates — $287.33
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872
North Carolina A&T Aggies — $259.28
Flaznorp
North Carolina A&T Aggies — $25.75
ameisgoat11
CTREast Carolina Pirates — $2.4