Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold North Carolina A&T Aggies, while the market favors East Carolina Pirates (86%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

North Carolina A&T Aggies vs. East Carolina Pirates

5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold North Carolina A&T Aggies (63%) · North Carolina A&T Aggies at 14¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 11

North Carolina A&T Aggies14¢East Carolina Pirates86¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

North Carolina A&T Aggies

Consensus Traders

North Carolina A&T Aggies 63%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$3.18

Smart Money Entry

13.9¢ → 14.5¢

+4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidNorth Carolina A&T Aggies at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Carolina A&T Aggies

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors East Carolina Pirates 86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

North Carolina A&T Aggies14%

East Carolina Pirates86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

East Carolina Pirates3 traders

Total Value$318.37

Total Shares318

Combined PnL-$4.98

North Carolina A&T Aggies5 traders

Total Value$423.14

Total Shares2,947

Combined PnL+$1.81

East Carolina Pirates — 38%North Carolina A&T Aggies — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	East Carolina Piratesavg 87.3¢	$556.81	$569.92	+$13.11	51% 1861-1809 (3670)
└ East Carolina Pirates leg	East Carolina Piratesavg 87.3¢	$389.54	$372.55	-$16.99
└ North Carolina A&T Aggies leg	North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 14¢	$167.27	$197.38	+$30.11
RN1ARB<$100	East Carolina Piratesavg 89¢	$287.23	$288.11	+$0.87	57% 4041-3054 (7095)
└ East Carolina Pirates leg	East Carolina Piratesavg 89¢	$228.73	$221.02	-$7.71
└ North Carolina A&T Aggies leg	North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 12.2¢	$58.5	$67.09	+$8.58
38 38791873984189	East Carolina Piratesavg 87.1¢	$290.48	$286.2	-$4.27	48% 1401-1536 (2937)
FO forecastication4CTR	North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 14¢	$208.88	$208.88	-$0	18% 48-217 (265)
SN SnakeBallCTR	North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 14¢	$132.96	$132.96	-$0	45% 267-323 (590)
HO HomeRunHazardARB<$100	North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 14¢	$110.24	$110.88	+$0.63	57% 3221-2431 (5652)
└ North Carolina A&T Aggies leg	North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 14¢	$59.99	$59.91	-$0.08
└ East Carolina Pirates leg	East Carolina Piratesavg 84.8¢	$50.25	$50.97	+$0.71
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 14¢	$70	$70	-$0	55% 715-580 (1295)
PA Pan9X<$100	East Carolina Piratesavg 89¢	$35.59	$27.87	-$0.76	49% 678-717 (1395)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 11.6¢	$8.1	$9.8	+$1.7	43% 120-161 (281)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	East Carolina Piratesavg 85¢	$4.25	$4.3	+$0.05	33% 307-627 (934)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	North Carolina A&T Aggiesavg 13¢	$1.4	$1.51	+$0.11	14% 76-472 (548)

FlaznorpARB<$100

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$556.81

Value

$569.92

PnL

+$13.11

Record

51%

1861-1809 (3670)

Both legs:

East Carolina Pirates$389.5487.3¢-$16.99

North Carolina A&T Aggies$167.2714¢+$30.11

RN1ARB<$100

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$287.23

Value

$288.11

PnL

+$0.87

Record

57%

4041-3054 (7095)

Both legs:

East Carolina Pirates$228.7389¢-$7.71

North Carolina A&T Aggies$58.512.2¢+$8.58

38791873984189

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$290.48

Value

$286.2

PnL

-$4.27

Record

48%

1401-1536 (2937)

forecastication4CTR

North Carolina A&T Aggies

Invested

$208.88

Value

$208.88

PnL

-$0

Record

18%

48-217 (265)

SnakeBallCTR

North Carolina A&T Aggies

Invested

$132.96

Value

$132.96

PnL

-$0

Record

45%

267-323 (590)

HomeRunHazardARB<$100

North Carolina A&T Aggies

Invested

$110.24

Value

$110.88

PnL

+$0.63

Record

57%

3221-2431 (5652)

Both legs:

North Carolina A&T Aggies$59.9914¢-$0.08

East Carolina Pirates$50.2584.8¢+$0.71

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

North Carolina A&T Aggies

Invested

$70

Value

$70

PnL

-$0

Record

55%

715-580 (1295)

Pan9X<$100

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$35.59

Value

$27.87

PnL

-$0.76

Record

49%

678-717 (1395)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

North Carolina A&T Aggies

Invested

$8.1

Value

$9.8

PnL

+$1.7

Record

43%

120-161 (281)

ameisgoat11<$100

East Carolina Pirates

Invested

$4.25

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.05

Record

33%

307-627 (934)

hi774cCTR<$100

North Carolina A&T Aggies

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.51

PnL

+$0.11

Record

14%

76-472 (548)

Research grade

AvoidNorth Carolina A&T Aggies at 14%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

North Carolina A&T Aggies

5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors East Carolina Pirates 86%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Carolina A&T Aggies wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance16.2%

14.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$519.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

619.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.