North Alabama Lions vs. Oklahoma Sooners

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Oklahoma Sooners (50%) · Oklahoma Sooners at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 10

North Alabama Lions<1¢Oklahoma Sooners>99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Oklahoma Sooners

Consensus Traders

Oklahoma Sooners 50%

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$6.5

Smart Money Entry

99¢ → 99.6¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOklahoma Sooners at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma Sooners

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

North Alabama Lions0%

Oklahoma Sooners100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Oklahoma Sooners4 traders

Total Value$4.7K

Total Shares4,737

Combined PnL-$3.21

North Alabama Lions4 traders

Total Value$47.1

Total Shares4,760

Combined PnL-$3.29

Oklahoma Sooners — 50%North Alabama Lions — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma Sooners. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorth Alabama Lions 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOklahoma Sooners 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Oklahoma Sooners 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Oklahoma Soonersavg 99¢	$4.5K	$4.5K	+$2.25	42% 29-40 (69)
38 38791873984189	Oklahoma Soonersavg 98.5¢	$164.11	$160.8	-$3.3	50% 405-412 (817)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Oklahoma Soonersavg 98.3¢	$49.98	$48.52	-$1.46	63% 67-40 (107)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	North Alabama Lionsavg 1¢	$45	$45	-$0	48% 69-75 (144)
PA Pan9X<$100	Oklahoma Soonersavg 98.5¢	$37.21	$24.68	-$0.7	49% 183-194 (377)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	North Alabama Lionsavg 1.9¢	$1.85	$1.26	-$0.59	30% 122-284 (406)
dips.CTR<$100	North Alabama Lionsavg 3¢	$3.39	$0.73	-$2.65	46% 115-136 (251)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100	North Alabama Lionsavg 1¢	$0.15	$0.11	-$0.04	7% 30-411 (441)

nigiri99

Oklahoma Sooners

Invested

$4,455

Value

$4.5K

PnL

+$2.25

Record

42%

29-40 (69)

38791873984189

Oklahoma Sooners

Invested

$164.11

Value

$160.8

PnL

-$3.3

Record

50%

405-412 (817)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Oklahoma Sooners

Invested

$49.98

Value

$48.52

PnL

-$1.46

Record

63%

67-40 (107)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

North Alabama Lions

Invested

$45

Value

$45

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

69-75 (144)

Pan9X<$100

Oklahoma Sooners

Invested

$37.21

Value

$24.68

PnL

-$0.7

Record

49%

183-194 (377)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

North Alabama Lions

Invested

$1.85

Value

$1.26

PnL

-$0.59

Record

30%

122-284 (406)

dips.CTR<$100

North Alabama Lions

Invested

$3.39

Value

$0.73

PnL

-$2.65

Record

46%

115-136 (251)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR<$100

North Alabama Lions

Invested

$0.15

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.04

Record

30-411 (441)

Research grade

AvoidOklahoma Sooners at 100%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Oklahoma Sooners

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Oklahoma Sooners. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNorth Alabama Lions 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOklahoma Sooners 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Oklahoma Sooners 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Oklahoma Sooners wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.