Spread: Washington Huskies (-33.5)

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils (33%) · Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at 99¢ · $252 held · ended Nov 10

Washington Huskies1¢Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils99¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

Consensus Traders

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils 33%

Total Value

$252.07

Combined PnL

$68.42

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 98.6¢

+83% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidMississippi Valley State Delta Devils at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Washington Huskies1%

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils3 traders

Total Value$177.17

Total Shares330

Combined PnL+$95.21

Washington Huskies6 traders

Total Value$74.9

Total Shares170

Combined PnL-$26.79

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils — 33%Washington Huskies — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils) and the top 1000 (9 on Washington Huskies) disagree here.

sharpMississippi Valley State Delta Devils 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrWashington Huskies 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMississippi Valley State Delta Devils 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Washington Huskies 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsavg 54¢	$75.54	$170.37	+$94.83	57% 3010-2261 (5271)
BO BoomLaLaCTR<$100	Washington Huskiesavg 46¢	$46	$42	-$9	12% 22-166 (188)
PA Pan9XCTR<$100	Washington Huskiesavg 46.3¢	$12.93	$15.05	-$8.41	47% 329-371 (700)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Washington Huskiesavg 45¢	$12.55	$11.71	-$7.95	50% 1275-1295 (2570)
38 38791873984189<$100	Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsavg 55.8¢	$5.69	$5.17	-$0.52	48% 603-645 (1248)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100	Washington Huskiesavg 42¢	$3.62	$3.62	-$0.43	56% 403-323 (726)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Washington Huskiesavg 46¢	$2.3	$2.1	-$0.7	20% 113-461 (574)
RN1<$100	Mississippi Valley State Delta Devilsavg 53¢	$0.72	$1.62	+$0.9	58% 3628-2593 (6221)
FO forecastication4CTR<$100	Washington Huskiesavg 50¢	$0.5	$0.42	-$0.31	10% 20-182 (202)

HomeRunHazard

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

Invested

$75.54

Value

$170.37

PnL

+$94.83

Record

57%

3010-2261 (5271)

BoomLaLaCTR<$100

Washington Huskies

Invested

$46

Value

$42

PnL

-$9

Record

12%

22-166 (188)

Pan9XCTR<$100

Washington Huskies

Invested

$12.93

Value

$15.05

PnL

-$8.41

Record

47%

329-371 (700)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Washington Huskies

Invested

$12.55

Value

$11.71

PnL

-$7.95

Record

50%

1275-1295 (2570)

38791873984189<$100

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

Invested

$5.69

Value

$5.17

PnL

-$0.52

Record

48%

603-645 (1248)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100

Washington Huskies

Invested

$3.62

Value

$3.62

PnL

-$0.43

Record

56%

403-323 (726)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Washington Huskies

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.1

PnL

-$0.7

Record

20%

113-461 (574)

RN1<$100

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

Invested

$0.72

Value

$1.62

PnL

+$0.9

Record

58%

3628-2593 (6221)

forecastication4CTR<$100

Washington Huskies

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$0.31

Record

10%

20-182 (202)

Research grade

AvoidMississippi Valley State Delta Devils at 99%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils

3 of 9 top traders (33%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Cooling

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils) and the top 1000 (9 on Washington Huskies) disagree here.

sharpMississippi Valley State Delta Devils 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrWashington Huskies 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedMississippi Valley State Delta Devils 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Washington Huskies 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.