Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (87%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 149.5

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 13¢ · $954 held · ended Nov 11

Over13¢Under87¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$953.83

Combined PnL

-$14.36

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 13¢

-69% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over13%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$295.5

Total Shares751

Combined PnL-$23.05

Under3 traders

Total Value$300.21

Total Shares500

Combined PnL+$8.69

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (3 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 57.1¢	$358.45	$358.12	-$0.33	50% 1433-1435 (2868)
└ Under leg	Underavg 57.1¢	$275.8	$275.3	-$0.5
└ Over leg	Overavg 42.9¢	$82.65	$82.82	+$0.17
0xheavy888CTR	Overavg 44¢	$220.55	$215.51	-$5.05	56% 119-94 (213)
SE sentrio	Underavg 57.1¢	$115.66	$115.49	-$0.17	32% 184-398 (582)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Underavg 54¢	$90.85	$95.84	+$4.99	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 66¢	$85.02	$88.89	+$3.86	56% 488-383 (871)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 42.7¢	$63.99	$64.49	+$0.5	50% 262-258 (520)
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$17	$7.75	-$9.25	64% 170-94 (264)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 34¢	$17	$7.75	-$9.25	42% 217-300 (517)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$358.45

Value

$358.12

PnL

-$0.33

Record

50%

1433-1435 (2868)

Both legs:

Under$275.857.1¢-$0.5

Over$82.6542.9¢+$0.17

0xheavy888CTR

Over

Invested

$220.55

Value

$215.51

PnL

-$5.05

Record

56%

119-94 (213)

sentrio

Under

Invested

$115.66

Value

$115.49

PnL

-$0.17

Record

32%

184-398 (582)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Under

Invested

$90.85

Value

$95.84

PnL

+$4.99

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$85.02

Value

$88.89

PnL

+$3.86

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$63.99

Value

$64.49

PnL

+$0.5

Record

50%

262-258 (520)

suitcase6628CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17

Value

$7.75

PnL

-$9.25

Record

64%

170-94 (264)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17

Value

$7.75

PnL

-$9.25

Record

42%

217-300 (517)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 13%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors Under 87%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Over) and the top 1000 (3 on Under) disagree here.

ctrOver 100% · 2

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 3

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance14.6%

13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$584.84

Max Loss

-$100.00

684.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.