Michigan State Spartans vs. Duke Blue Devils: O/U 147.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Under (45%) · Under at 62¢ · $22K held · ended Nov 11

Over39¢Under61¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 45%

Total Value

$21.7K

Combined PnL

$5.0K

Smart Money Entry

51.4¢ → 61.5¢

+20% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over39%

Under62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$13.6K

Total Shares16,474

Combined PnL+$5.1K

Over6 traders

Total Value$8.1K

Total Shares16,690

Combined PnL-$161.86

Under — 45%Over — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 51.2¢	$8.4K	$13.5K	+$5.1K	54% 1656-1433 (3089)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR	Overavg 48.6¢	$4.1K	$4.1K	-$42.29	57% 3074-2312 (5386)
HI hi774cCTR	Overavg 49¢	$3.7K	$3.6K	-$75.47	8% 37-422 (459)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 48.4¢	$199.26	$174.72	-$1.02	48% 947-1017 (1964)
RN1CTR	Overavg 52.1¢	$133.52	$123.09	-$10.43	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Underavg 86¢	$91.7	$88.9	-$2.81	56% 488-383 (871)
0xheavy888CTR<$100	Overavg 52¢	$93.48	$59.32	-$34.16	55% 119-96 (215)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Underavg 52¢	$5.33	$5.33	+$0	50% 1503-1507 (3010)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Underavg 52.5¢	$5.25	$5.2	-$0.05	26% 180-518 (698)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$3.3	$4.8	+$1.5	19% 77-326 (403)
VeryLucky888<$100	Underavg 50¢	$49.1	$1.15	+$1.04	51% 299-291 (590)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$8,374.37

Value

$13.5K

PnL

+$5.1K

Record

54%

1656-1433 (3089)

HomeRunHazardCTR

Over

Invested

$4,129.71

Value

$4.1K

PnL

-$42.29

Record

57%

3074-2312 (5386)

hi774cCTR

Over

Invested

$3,698.07

Value

$3.6K

PnL

-$75.47

Record

37-422 (459)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$199.26

Value

$174.72

PnL

-$1.02

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$133.52

Value

$123.09

PnL

-$10.43

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Under

Invested

$91.7

Value

$88.9

PnL

-$2.81

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

0xheavy888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$93.48

Value

$59.32

PnL

-$34.16

Record

55%

119-96 (215)

Flaznorp<$100

Under

Invested

$5.33

Value

$5.33

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1503-1507 (3010)

ameisgoat11<$100

Under

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

26%

180-518 (698)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.3

Value

$4.8

PnL

+$1.5

Record

19%

77-326 (403)

VeryLucky888<$100

Under

Invested

$49.1

Value

$1.15

PnL

+$1.04

Record

51%

299-291 (590)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Over 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.