Morgan State Bears vs. UMBC Retrievers

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold UMBC Retrievers (64%) · UMBC Retrievers at 92¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12

Morgan State Bears9¢UMBC Retrievers91¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

UMBC Retrievers

Consensus Traders

UMBC Retrievers 64%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$35.73

Smart Money Entry

72.3¢ → 91.5¢

+27% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUMBC Retrievers at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

UMBC Retrievers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Morgan State Bears9%

UMBC Retrievers92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

UMBC Retrievers7 traders

Total Value$958.9

Total Shares1,277

Combined PnL+$32.88

Morgan State Bears4 traders

Total Value$51.64

Total Shares461

Combined PnL+$2.85

UMBC Retrievers — 64%Morgan State Bears — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+50 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on UMBC Retrievers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUMBC Retrievers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000UMBC Retrievers 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	UMBC Retrieversavg 71.4¢	$377.95	$391.46	+$13.51	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
0xheavy888	UMBC Retrieversavg 71.4¢	$374.58	$388.33	+$13.75	55% 294-243 (537)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Morgan State Bearsavg 50¢	$992	$196.86	+$1.86	82% 96-21 (117)
└ UMBC Retrievers leg	UMBC Retrieversavg 50¢	$96.48	$140.86	+$45.86
└ Morgan State Bears leg	Morgan State Bearsavg 50¢	$100	$56	-$44
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	UMBC Retrieversavg 85.7¢	$91.46	$99.52	+$8.06	51% 2691-2616 (5307)
└ UMBC Retrievers leg	UMBC Retrieversavg 85.7¢	$52.28	$56.72	+$4.44
└ Morgan State Bears leg	Morgan State Bearsavg 6.4¢	$39.18	$42.8	+$3.62
38 38791873984189<$100	UMBC Retrieversavg 71¢	$71	$74	+$3	48% 2320-2524 (4844)
dips.<$100	UMBC Retrieversavg 80¢	$44	$45.93	+$1.92	46% 580-694 (1274)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	UMBC Retrieversavg 84¢	$45.12	$45.38	+$0.27	54% 1122-947 (2069)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Morgan State Bearsavg 20¢	$28.34	$29.04	+$0.71	51% 2100-2043 (4143)
RN1CTR<$100	Morgan State Bearsavg 6¢	$15.18	$17.71	+$2.53	56% 4550-3521 (8071)
PA Pan9X<$100	UMBC Retrieversavg 71¢	$8.92	$9.09	+$0.17	49% 1097-1151 (2248)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	UMBC Retrieversavg 69¢	$4.45	$4.71	+$0.26	29% 105-255 (360)
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100	Morgan State Bearsavg 7.6¢	$4.95	$4.55	-$0.4	46% 173-206 (379)
GA gagarin59CTR<$100	Morgan State Bearsavg 25¢	$0.33	$0.34	+$0.01	41% 50-71 (121)

HomeRunHazard

UMBC Retrievers

Invested

$377.95

Value

$391.46

PnL

+$13.51

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

0xheavy888

UMBC Retrievers

Invested

$374.58

Value

$388.33

PnL

+$13.75

Record

55%

294-243 (537)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Morgan State Bears

Invested

$992

Value

$196.86

PnL

+$1.86

Record

82%

96-21 (117)

Both legs:

UMBC Retrievers$96.4850¢+$45.86

Morgan State Bears$10050¢-$44

FlaznorpARB<$100

UMBC Retrievers

Invested

$91.46

Value

$99.52

PnL

+$8.06

Record

51%

2691-2616 (5307)

Both legs:

UMBC Retrievers$52.2885.7¢+$4.44

Morgan State Bears$39.186.4¢+$3.62

38791873984189<$100

UMBC Retrievers

Invested

$71

Value

$74

PnL

+$3

Record

48%

2320-2524 (4844)

dips.<$100

UMBC Retrievers

Invested

$44

Value

$45.93

PnL

+$1.92

Record

46%

580-694 (1274)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

UMBC Retrievers

Invested

$45.12

Value

$45.38

PnL

+$0.27

Record

54%

1122-947 (2069)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Morgan State Bears

Invested

$28.34

Value

$29.04

PnL

+$0.71

Record

51%

2100-2043 (4143)

RN1CTR<$100

Morgan State Bears

Invested

$15.18

Value

$17.71

PnL

+$2.53

Record

56%

4550-3521 (8071)

Pan9X<$100

UMBC Retrievers

Invested

$8.92

Value

$9.09

PnL

+$0.17

Record

49%

1097-1151 (2248)

BoomLaLa<$100

UMBC Retrievers

Invested

$4.45

Value

$4.71

PnL

+$0.26

Record

29%

105-255 (360)

thirdt1meCTR<$100

Morgan State Bears

Invested

$4.95

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$0.4

Record

46%

173-206 (379)

gagarin59CTR<$100

Morgan State Bears

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.34

PnL

+$0.01

Record

41%

50-71 (121)

Research grade

AvoidUMBC Retrievers at 92%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

UMBC Retrievers

7 of 11 top traders (64%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+50 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on UMBC Retrievers. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUMBC Retrievers 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000UMBC Retrievers 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that UMBC Retrievers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.