Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Monmouth Hawks, while the market favors Quinnipiac Bobcats (71%). 6 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Monmouth Hawks vs. Quinnipiac Bobcats

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Monmouth Hawks (50%) · Monmouth Hawks at 30¢ · $748 held · ended Nov 13

Monmouth Hawks30¢Quinnipiac Bobcats70¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Monmouth Hawks

Consensus Traders

Monmouth Hawks 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$748.48

Combined PnL

-$110.08

Smart Money Entry

51.6¢ → 29.5¢

-43% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidMonmouth Hawks at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Monmouth Hawks

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Quinnipiac Bobcats 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Monmouth Hawks30%

Quinnipiac Bobcats71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Monmouth Hawks6 traders

Total Value$375.4

Total Shares943

Combined PnL-$113.49

Quinnipiac Bobcats6 traders

Total Value$217.6

Total Shares391

Combined PnL+$3.41

Monmouth Hawks — 50%Quinnipiac Bobcats — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Monmouth Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Quinnipiac Bobcats) and the top 1000 (6 on Monmouth Hawks) disagree here.

ctrQuinnipiac Bobcats 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedQuinnipiac Bobcats 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Monmouth Hawks 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 44¢	$153.82	$155.48	+$1.66	56% 4589-3558 (8147)
└ Quinnipiac Bobcats leg	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 44¢	$114.4	$115.7	+$1.3
└ Monmouth Hawks leg	Monmouth Hawksavg 55¢	$39.42	$39.78	+$0.36
FL FlaznorpCTR	Monmouth Hawksavg 54.8¢	$258.74	$143.93	-$114.81	51% 2763-2694 (5457)
0xheavy888CTR	Monmouth Hawksavg 48¢	$133.7	$135.1	+$1.39	56% 312-248 (560)
38 38791873984189	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 51¢	$185.82	$125.84	+$2.42	48% 2366-2611 (4977)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	Monmouth Hawksavg 48¢	$78.11	$78.21	+$0.1	57% 3458-2629 (6087)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 50¢	$36	$37.44	+$1.44	44% 177-221 (398)
TH thirdt1me<$100	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 72¢	$36	$35.25	-$0.75	46% 180-208 (388)
PA Pan9X<$100	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 46.7¢	$12.73	$13	+$0.27	49% 1100-1151 (2251)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Monmouth Hawksavg 56¢	$10.99	$10.89	-$0.1	49% 1386-1434 (2820)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 52¢	$5	$5	+$0	38% 509-821 (1330)
0X 0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100	Monmouth Hawksavg 49¢	$4.9	$4.85	-$0.05	59% 3030-2107 (5137)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Monmouth Hawksavg 49¢	$2.45	$2.43	-$0.03	43% 400-536 (936)
VeryLucky888<$100	Quinnipiac Bobcatsavg 51¢	$1.04	$1.06	+$0.02	53% 852-766 (1618)

RN1ARB<$100

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

$153.82

Value

$155.48

PnL

+$1.66

Record

56%

4589-3558 (8147)

Both legs:

Quinnipiac Bobcats$114.444¢+$1.3

Monmouth Hawks$39.4255¢+$0.36

FlaznorpCTR

Monmouth Hawks

Invested

$258.74

Value

$143.93

PnL

-$114.81

Record

51%

2763-2694 (5457)

0xheavy888CTR

Monmouth Hawks

Invested

$133.7

Value

$135.1

PnL

+$1.39

Record

56%

312-248 (560)

38791873984189

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

$185.82

Value

$125.84

PnL

+$2.42

Record

48%

2366-2611 (4977)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

Monmouth Hawks

Invested

$78.11

Value

$78.21

PnL

+$0.1

Record

57%

3458-2629 (6087)

Forecastication2<$100

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

$36

Value

$37.44

PnL

+$1.44

Record

44%

177-221 (398)

thirdt1me<$100

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

$36

Value

$35.25

PnL

-$0.75

Record

46%

180-208 (388)

Pan9X<$100

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

$12.73

Value

$13

PnL

+$0.27

Record

49%

1100-1151 (2251)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Monmouth Hawks

Invested

$10.99

Value

$10.89

PnL

-$0.1

Record

49%

1386-1434 (2820)

ameisgoat11<$100

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

509-821 (1330)

0x1bc32be106439240f59aa25668e613831a5cdc6eCTR<$100

Monmouth Hawks

Invested

$4.9

Value

$4.85

PnL

-$0.05

Record

59%

3030-2107 (5137)

smithagentCTR<$100

Monmouth Hawks

Invested

$2.45

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.03

Record

43%

400-536 (936)

VeryLucky888<$100

Quinnipiac Bobcats

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.06

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

852-766 (1618)

Research grade

AvoidMonmouth Hawks at 30%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Monmouth Hawks

6 of 12 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Quinnipiac Bobcats 71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

16h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

43% of non-arb traders are on Monmouth Hawks. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Quinnipiac Bobcats) and the top 1000 (6 on Monmouth Hawks) disagree here.

ctrQuinnipiac Bobcats 75% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedQuinnipiac Bobcats 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Monmouth Hawks 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Monmouth Hawks wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance31.6%

29.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$216.86

Max Loss

-$100.00

316.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.