Minnesota Golden Gophers vs. Cincinnati Bearcats

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Cincinnati Bearcats (75%) · Cincinnati Bearcats at 62¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 10

Minnesota Golden Gophers38¢Cincinnati Bearcats62¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Cincinnati Bearcats

Consensus Traders

Cincinnati Bearcats 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

-$40.63

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 62¢

-10% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidCincinnati Bearcats at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Cincinnati Bearcats

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Minnesota Golden Gophers38%

Cincinnati Bearcats62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Cincinnati Bearcats9 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,027

Combined PnL-$78.87

Minnesota Golden Gophers3 traders

Total Value$493.64

Total Shares1,443

Combined PnL+$38.24

Cincinnati Bearcats — 75%Minnesota Golden Gophers — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1ARB<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 72.3¢	$757.54	$710.2	-$47.34	54% 248-213 (461)
└ Cincinnati Bearcats leg	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 72.3¢	$450.72	$452.24	+$1.51
└ Minnesota Golden Gophers leg	Minnesota Golden Gophersavg 32.7¢	$306.82	$257.96	-$48.85
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 69¢	$689.98	$709.98	+$20	52% 190-176 (366)
TA takeormake	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 69.8¢	$544.07	$494.67	-$49.41	27% 84-223 (307)
D6 0xd6ae...7f16	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 67¢	$500	$492.54	-$7.46	— 0-5 (5)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Minnesota Golden Gophersavg 30.8¢	$202.82	$240.04	+$37.22	52% 271-247 (518)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Minnesota Golden Gophersavg 33¢	$149.42	$140.45	-$8.96	30% 108-250 (358)
38 38791873984189	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 69.5¢	$153.18	$128.9	+$1.94	49% 398-410 (808)
VE VenusianCTR	Minnesota Golden Gophersavg 31¢	$103.16	$113.14	+$9.98	26% 97-281 (378)
HO HomeRunHazard	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 74¢	$123.21	$95.74	-$27.47	30% 29-67 (96)
PA Pan9X<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 69.6¢	$52.55	$53.8	+$1.24	48% 179-191 (370)
0xheavy888<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 73.9¢	$43.86	$34.13	-$9.73	68% 30-14 (44)
VeryLucky888<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 74¢	$95.58	$26.63	-$7.94	50% 76-76 (152)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Cincinnati Bearcatsavg 75¢	$10	$5	-$0.05	20% 48-194 (242)

RN1ARB<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$757.54

Value

$710.2

PnL

-$47.34

Record

54%

248-213 (461)

Both legs:

Cincinnati Bearcats$450.7272.3¢+$1.51

Minnesota Golden Gophers$306.8232.7¢-$48.85

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$689.98

Value

$709.98

PnL

+$20

Record

52%

190-176 (366)

takeormake

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$544.07

Value

$494.67

PnL

-$49.41

Record

27%

84-223 (307)

0xd6ae...7f16

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$500

Value

$492.54

PnL

-$7.46

Record

—

0-5 (5)

FlaznorpCTR

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Invested

$202.82

Value

$240.04

PnL

+$37.22

Record

52%

271-247 (518)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Invested

$149.42

Value

$140.45

PnL

-$8.96

Record

30%

108-250 (358)

38791873984189

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$153.18

Value

$128.9

PnL

+$1.94

Record

49%

398-410 (808)

VenusianCTR

Minnesota Golden Gophers

Invested

$103.16

Value

$113.14

PnL

+$9.98

Record

26%

97-281 (378)

HomeRunHazard

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$123.21

Value

$95.74

PnL

-$27.47

Record

30%

29-67 (96)

Pan9X<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$52.55

Value

$53.8

PnL

+$1.24

Record

48%

179-191 (370)

0xheavy888<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$43.86

Value

$34.13

PnL

-$9.73

Record

68%

30-14 (44)

VeryLucky888<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$95.58

Value

$26.63

PnL

-$7.94

Record

50%

76-76 (152)

ameisgoat11<$100

Cincinnati Bearcats

Invested

$10

Value

PnL

-$0.05

Record

20%

48-194 (242)

Research grade

AvoidCincinnati Bearcats at 62%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Cincinnati Bearcats

9 of 12 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Cincinnati Bearcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.2%

62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$55.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

155.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.