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Under
RN1OverUnderOverUnderOver
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Under — but Over won instead.
Marquette Golden Eagles vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 152.5
Resolved Over. 40% of the top Polymarket traders held Under. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Under 40%
1 arb excluded
Total Value
$402.31
Combined PnL
-$127.58
Smart Money Signal
Under
2 of 5 top traders (40%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Over100%
Under0%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Under2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares570
Combined PnL-$336.1
Over3 traders
Total Value$332.31
Total Shares332
Combined PnL+$208.52
Under — 40%Over — 60%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR | Underavg 57¢ | $285 | — | -$285 | 55% 843-701 (1544) |
RN1 | Overavg 44.5¢ | $92.85 | $208.88 | +$116.03 | 57% 4155-3181 (7336) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 72.2¢ | $70.72 | $70 | -$0.72 | 51% 2141-2070 (4211) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 27¢ | $18.9 | $70 | +$51.1 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 72.2¢ | $51.82 | — | -$51.82 | |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 40.6¢ | $62.67 | $121.4 | +$91.11 | 47% 1681-1866 (3547) |
CH chiefphiCTR<$100 | Underavg 73¢ | $51.1 | — | -$51.1 | — 4-7 (11) |
MI mishipolis<$100 | Overavg 32¢ | $0.65 | $2.03 | +$1.38 | 41% 71-102 (173) |
0X
0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTRInvested
$285
Value
—
PnL
-$285
Record
55%
843-701 (1544)
RN1Invested
$92.85
Value
$208.88
PnL
+$116.03
Record
57%
4155-3181 (7336)
FL
FlaznorpARB<$100Invested
$70.72
Value
$70
PnL
-$0.72
Record
51%
2141-2070 (4211)
Both legs:
Over$18.927¢+$51.1
Under$51.8272.2¢-$51.82
38
38791873984189Invested
$62.67
Value
$121.4
PnL
+$91.11
Record
47%
1681-1866 (3547)
CH
chiefphiCTR<$100Invested
$51.1
Value
—
PnL
-$51.1
Record
—
4-7 (11)
MI
mishipolis<$100Invested
$0.65
Value
$2.03
PnL
+$1.38
Record
41%
71-102 (173)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xa2be3165...e73128
Slug
cbb-marq-mich-2026-11-11-total-152pt5