Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (54%). 2 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

LSU Tigers vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs: O/U 161.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (22%) · Under at 46¢ · $445 held · ended Nov 14

Over54¢Under46¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 22%

Total Value

$445.46

Combined PnL

$31.14

Smart Money Entry

53.5¢ → 46¢

-14% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under46%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under2 traders

Total Value$319.93

Total Shares492

Combined PnL+$56.61

Over7 traders

Total Value$125.53

Total Shares334

Combined PnL-$25.47

Under — 22%Over — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1CTR	Underavg 50.8¢	$156.44	$200.15	+$43.71	55% 5474-4481 (9955)
alpheclabs2CTR	Underavg 58¢	$106.89	$119.79	+$12.9	46% 311-372 (683)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 42¢	$77.4	$66.34	-$11.06	49% 4087-4288 (8375)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 46¢	$38.87	$32.7	-$6.17	48% 3305-3631 (6936)
VeryLucky888<$100	Overavg 46¢	$23	$17.5	-$5.5	54% 1497-1295 (2792)
HO HomeRunHazard<$100	Overavg 46¢	$6.27	$4.77	-$1.5	56% 3699-2861 (6560)
AM ameisgoat11<$100	Overavg 48¢	$2.4	$1.75	-$0.65	41% 706-1015 (1721)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Overavg 47¢	$2.35	$1.75	-$0.6	35% 163-305 (468)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Overavg 35¢	$0.71	$0.71	+$0	55% 1658-1357 (3015)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$156.44

Value

$200.15

PnL

+$43.71

Record

55%

5474-4481 (9955)

alpheclabs2CTR

Under

Invested

$106.89

Value

$119.79

PnL

+$12.9

Record

46%

311-372 (683)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$77.4

Value

$66.34

PnL

-$11.06

Record

49%

4087-4288 (8375)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$38.87

Value

$32.7

PnL

-$6.17

Record

48%

3305-3631 (6936)

VeryLucky888<$100

Over

Invested

$23

Value

$17.5

PnL

-$5.5

Record

54%

1497-1295 (2792)

HomeRunHazard<$100

Over

Invested

$6.27

Value

$4.77

PnL

-$1.5

Record

56%

3699-2861 (6560)

ameisgoat11<$100

Over

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.65

Record

41%

706-1015 (1721)

BoomLaLa<$100

Over

Invested

$2.35

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$0.6

Record

35%

163-305 (468)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Over

Invested

$0.71

Value

$0.71

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

1658-1357 (3015)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 46%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

2 of 9 top traders (22%)Underdog side (market favors Over 54%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.2%

46.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$107.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

207.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.