Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold LSU Tigers, while the market favors Gonzaga Bulldogs (54%). 7 of 13 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

LSU Tigers vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold LSU Tigers (54%) · LSU Tigers at 47¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

LSU Tigers47¢Gonzaga Bulldogs53¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

LSU Tigers

Consensus Traders

LSU Tigers 54%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

-$92.55

Smart Money Entry

40.2¢ → 46.5¢

+16% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidLSU Tigers at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

LSU Tigers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Gonzaga Bulldogs 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

LSU Tigers47%

Gonzaga Bulldogs54%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Gonzaga Bulldogs6 traders

Total Value$408.03

Total Shares640

Combined PnL-$64.79

LSU Tigers7 traders

Total Value$674.76

Total Shares1,733

Combined PnL-$27.76

Gonzaga Bulldogs — 46%LSU Tigers — 54%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NO NotJumpARB<$100	LSU Tigersavg 50¢	$525	$525	+$0	52% 883-823 (1706)
└ Gonzaga Bulldogs leg	Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 50¢	$262.5	$304.5	+$42
└ LSU Tigers leg	LSU Tigersavg 50¢	$262.5	$220.5	-$42
FL Flaznorp	Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 67¢	$451.33	$353.69	-$74.47	49% 4068-4262 (8330)
MA MadridTimeCTR	LSU Tigersavg 47¢	$330.3	$326.79	-$3.51	38% 1060-1756 (2816)
SN SnakeBallCTR	LSU Tigersavg 33.4¢	$227.34	$190.39	-$36.95	47% 969-1095 (2064)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	LSU Tigersavg 47¢	$81.57	$81.57	+$0	37% 1035-1784 (2819)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	LSU Tigersavg 32.9¢	$50.08	$63.84	+$13.76	45% 268-322 (590)
ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100	LSU Tigersavg 45¢	$59.19	$51.19	-$8	83% 784-160 (944)
└ Gonzaga Bulldogs leg	Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 58¢	$23.2	$28.79	+$5.6
└ LSU Tigers leg	LSU Tigersavg 45¢	$36	$22.4	-$13.6
PA Pan9X<$100	Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 53¢	$29.52	$25.19	+$6.48	50% 1601-1625 (3226)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100	Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 58¢	$12.18	$15.12	+$2.94	55% 1630-1337 (2967)
BO BoomLaLa<$100	Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 64¢	$10.24	$10.48	+$0.24	35% 162-305 (467)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	LSU Tigersavg 33¢	$91.26	$9.6	-$0.65	48% 3273-3600 (6873)
HO HomeRunHazardCTR<$100	LSU Tigersavg 32¢	$1.6	$2.1	+$0.5	56% 3687-2847 (6534)
RN1<$100	Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 60¢	$1.5	$1.8	+$0.3	55% 5455-4439 (9894)
VeryLucky888<$100	Gonzaga Bulldogsavg 67¢	$2.03	$1.76	-$0.27	54% 1473-1278 (2751)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	LSU Tigersavg 36¢	$14.78	$0.48	-$0.9	48% 2212-2378 (4590)

NotJumpARB<$100

LSU Tigers

Invested

$525

Value

$525

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

883-823 (1706)

Both legs:

Gonzaga Bulldogs$262.550¢+$42

LSU Tigers$262.550¢-$42

Flaznorp

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Invested

$451.33

Value

$353.69

PnL

-$74.47

Record

49%

4068-4262 (8330)

MadridTimeCTR

LSU Tigers

Invested

$330.3

Value

$326.79

PnL

-$3.51

Record

38%

1060-1756 (2816)

SnakeBallCTR

LSU Tigers

Invested

$227.34

Value

$190.39

PnL

-$36.95

Record

47%

969-1095 (2064)

VenusianCTR<$100

LSU Tigers

Invested

$81.57

Value

$81.57

PnL

+$0

Record

37%

1035-1784 (2819)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

LSU Tigers

Invested

$50.08

Value

$63.84

PnL

+$13.76

Record

45%

268-322 (590)

ARTEM-DZYUBAARB<$100

LSU Tigers

Invested

$59.19

Value

$51.19

PnL

-$8

Record

83%

784-160 (944)

Both legs:

Gonzaga Bulldogs$23.258¢+$5.6

LSU Tigers$3645¢-$13.6

Pan9X<$100

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Invested

$29.52

Value

$25.19

PnL

+$6.48

Record

50%

1601-1625 (3226)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872<$100

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Invested

$12.18

Value

$15.12

PnL

+$2.94

Record

55%

1630-1337 (2967)

BoomLaLa<$100

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Invested

$10.24

Value

$10.48

PnL

+$0.24

Record

35%

162-305 (467)

38791873984189CTR<$100

LSU Tigers

Invested

$91.26

Value

$9.6

PnL

-$0.65

Record

48%

3273-3600 (6873)

HomeRunHazardCTR<$100

LSU Tigers

Invested

$1.6

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.5

Record

56%

3687-2847 (6534)

RN1<$100

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.8

PnL

+$0.3

Record

55%

5455-4439 (9894)

VeryLucky888<$100

Gonzaga Bulldogs

Invested

$2.03

Value

$1.76

PnL

-$0.27

Record

54%

1473-1278 (2751)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

LSU Tigers

Invested

$14.78

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$0.9

Record

48%

2212-2378 (4590)

Research grade

AvoidLSU Tigers at 47%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

LSU Tigers

7 of 13 top traders (54%)Underdog side (market favors Gonzaga Bulldogs 54%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that LSU Tigers wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance48.7%

46.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$105.14

Max Loss

-$100.00

205.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.