Loyola Marymount Lions vs. Troy Trojans: O/U 148.5
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (80%) · Under at 70¢ · $604 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Under
5
Under 80%
$604.38
$78.87
53.2¢ → 69.5¢
+31% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 70%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872 | Underavg 51¢ | $212 | $216.55 | +$4.55 | 56% 488-383 (871) |
 RN1 | Underavg 52.4¢ | $140.06 | $181.76 | +$41.7 | 58% 3802-2782 (6584) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 57.4¢ | $139.21 | $168.5 | +$29.29 | 50% 1503-1507 (3010) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $27.53 | $31.56 | +$4.03 | 51% 299-291 (590) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 58¢ | $6.71 | $6.02 | -$0.69 | 48% 947-1017 (1964) |
Invested
$212
Value
$216.55
PnL
+$4.55
Record
56%
488-383 (871)
RN1Invested
$140.06
Value
$181.76
PnL
+$41.7
Record
58%
3802-2782 (6584)
Invested
$139.21
Value
$168.5
PnL
+$29.29
Record
50%
1503-1507 (3010)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$27.53
Value
$31.56
PnL
+$4.03
Record
51%
299-291 (590)
Invested
$6.71
Value
$6.02
PnL
-$0.69
Record
48%
947-1017 (1964)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.