Spread: Loyola Chicago Ramblers (-9.5)
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Air Force Falcons (60%) · Air Force Falcons at 51¢ · $937 held · ended Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Air Force Falcons
5
Air Force Falcons 60%
$937.42
-$34.41
45¢ → 50.5¢
+12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidAir Force Falcons at 51%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Air Force Falcons. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HO HomeRunHazard | Air Force Falconsavg 45.3¢ | $770.54 | $663.45 | -$107.08 | 57% 3221-2431 (5652) |
FL Flaznorp | Air Force Falconsavg 43.8¢ | $188.76 | $250.46 | +$61.71 | 51% 1861-1809 (3670) |
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR<$100 | Loyola Chicago Ramblersavg 1¢ | $0.28 | $13.94 | +$13.66 | 55% 715-580 (1295) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Air Force Falconsavg 45¢ | $9.5 | $9.5 | +$0 | 38% 358-588 (946) |
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100 | Loyola Chicago Ramblersavg 55¢ | $2.75 | $0.05 | -$2.7 | 33% 307-627 (934) |
Invested
$770.54
Value
$663.45
PnL
-$107.08
Record
57%
3221-2431 (5652)
Invested
$188.76
Value
$250.46
PnL
+$61.71
Record
51%
1861-1809 (3670)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$13.94
PnL
+$13.66
Record
55%
715-580 (1295)
Invested
$9.5
Value
$9.5
PnL
+$0
Record
38%
358-588 (946)
Invested
$2.75
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$2.7
Record
33%
307-627 (934)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.