La Salle Explorers vs. Villanova Wildcats

6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Villanova Wildcats (50%) · Villanova Wildcats at 95¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 11

La Salle Explorers5¢Villanova Wildcats95¢Ended Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Villanova Wildcats

Consensus Traders

Villanova Wildcats 50%

Total Value

$4.0K

Combined PnL

-$9.9

Smart Money Entry

96.3¢ → 94.8¢

-2% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidVillanova Wildcats at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Villanova Wildcats

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

La Salle Explorers5%

Villanova Wildcats95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Villanova Wildcats6 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares3,956

Combined PnL-$37.82

La Salle Explorers6 traders

Total Value$223.64

Total Shares5,540

Combined PnL+$27.92

Villanova Wildcats — 50%La Salle Explorers — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Villanova Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpVillanova Wildcats 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLa Salle Explorers 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Villanova Wildcats 55% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Villanova Wildcatsavg 96.5¢	$2.2K	$2.2K	-$4.63	52% 128-120 (248)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872	Villanova Wildcatsavg 95.7¢	$638.78	$631.85	-$6.93	56% 488-383 (871)
SU suitcase6628	Villanova Wildcatsavg 96.3¢	$481.71	$463.25	-$18.46	65% 175-96 (271)
38 38791873984189	Villanova Wildcatsavg 96.2¢	$574.76	$417.68	-$6.22	48% 947-1017 (1964)
SN SnakeBallCTR	La Salle Explorersavg 3.4¢	$116.5	$122.13	+$5.64	48% 190-206 (396)
PA Pan9X	Villanova Wildcatsavg 96¢	$141.47	$101.43	-$1.54	49% 443-470 (913)
TA takeormakeCTR<$100	La Salle Explorersavg 3.7¢	$56.98	$75.18	+$18.2	59% 3119-2207 (5326)
RN1CTR<$100	La Salle Explorersavg 5.6¢	$10.73	$11.63	+$0.9	58% 3802-2782 (6584)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Villanova Wildcatsavg 96.6¢	$11.59	$11.56	-$0.03	41% 3084-4451 (7535)
HI hi774cCTR<$100	La Salle Explorersavg 3.1¢	$6.99	$8.11	+$1.13	8% 37-422 (459)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	La Salle Explorersavg 2.2¢	$3.3	$5.49	+$2.19	53% 5511-4919 (10430)
dips.CTR<$100	La Salle Explorersavg 4.1¢	$1.23	$1.11	-$0.12	42% 230-315 (545)

nigiri99

Villanova Wildcats

Invested

$2,164.62

Value

$2.2K

PnL

-$4.63

Record

52%

128-120 (248)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872

Villanova Wildcats

Invested

$638.78

Value

$631.85

PnL

-$6.93

Record

56%

488-383 (871)

suitcase6628

Villanova Wildcats

Invested

$481.71

Value

$463.25

PnL

-$18.46

Record

65%

175-96 (271)

38791873984189

Villanova Wildcats

Invested

$574.76

Value

$417.68

PnL

-$6.22

Record

48%

947-1017 (1964)

SnakeBallCTR

La Salle Explorers

Invested

$116.5

Value

$122.13

PnL

+$5.64

Record

48%

190-206 (396)

Pan9X

Villanova Wildcats

Invested

$141.47

Value

$101.43

PnL

-$1.54

Record

49%

443-470 (913)

takeormakeCTR<$100

La Salle Explorers

Invested

$56.98

Value

$75.18

PnL

+$18.2

Record

59%

3119-2207 (5326)

RN1CTR<$100

La Salle Explorers

Invested

$10.73

Value

$11.63

PnL

+$0.9

Record

58%

3802-2782 (6584)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Villanova Wildcats

Invested

$11.59

Value

$11.56

PnL

-$0.03

Record

41%

3084-4451 (7535)

hi774cCTR<$100

La Salle Explorers

Invested

$6.99

Value

$8.11

PnL

+$1.13

Record

37-422 (459)

cigarettesCTR<$100

La Salle Explorers

Invested

$3.3

Value

$5.49

PnL

+$2.19

Record

53%

5511-4919 (10430)

dips.CTR<$100

La Salle Explorers

Invested

$1.23

Value

$1.11

PnL

-$0.12

Record

42%

230-315 (545)

Research grade

AvoidVillanova Wildcats at 95%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Villanova Wildcats

6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

55% of non-arb traders are on Villanova Wildcats. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpVillanova Wildcats 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrLa Salle Explorers 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Villanova Wildcats 55% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Villanova Wildcats wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.0%

94.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.11

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.