Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks vs. Texas A&M Aggies: O/U 168.5

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (45%) · Over at 89¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 10

Over89¢Under11¢Ended Tue, Nov 10, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 45%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$8.1

Smart Money Entry

54.2¢ → 88.5¢

+63% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidOver at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over89%

Under12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,577

Combined PnL-$145.59

Under6 traders

Total Value$612.44

Total Shares1,631

Combined PnL+$137.5

Over — 45%Under — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HO HomeRunHazard	Overavg 53.1¢	$947.07	$655.83	-$291.24	29% 32-78 (110)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 48.3¢	$338.38	$346.96	+$8.58	69% 34-15 (49)
RN1	Overavg 57.5¢	$160.23	$264.57	+$104.33	52% 287-270 (557)
0X 0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR	Underavg 45¢	$120	$212.5	+$92.5	53% 214-189 (403)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 58.7¢	$52.61	$85.04	+$32.43	49% 427-449 (876)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 45¢	$11.5	$20.24	+$8.74	53% 330-294 (624)
SU suitcase6628<$100	Overavg 55¢	$11	$19	+$8	61% 78-49 (127)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR	Underavg 41¢	$143.5	$17.5	+$22.75	20% 50-202 (252)
AM ameisgoat11CTR<$100	Underavg 47.8¢	$6.58	$10.63	+$4.05	18% 55-248 (303)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$3.74	$4.62	+$0.88	52% 119-110 (229)
US User7429<$100	Overavg 55¢	$1.21	$2.09	+$0.88	16% 38-206 (244)

HomeRunHazard

Over

Invested

$947.07

Value

$655.83

PnL

-$291.24

Record

29%

32-78 (110)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$338.38

Value

$346.96

PnL

+$8.58

Record

69%

34-15 (49)

RN1

Over

Invested

$160.23

Value

$264.57

PnL

+$104.33

Record

52%

287-270 (557)

0x228B8d11EBa89BF1c554f8879a9293B7106DaF4c-1765442354872CTR

Under

Invested

$120

Value

$212.5

PnL

+$92.5

Record

53%

214-189 (403)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$52.61

Value

$85.04

PnL

+$32.43

Record

49%

427-449 (876)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.5

Value

$20.24

PnL

+$8.74

Record

53%

330-294 (624)

suitcase6628<$100

Over

Invested

$11

Value

$19

PnL

+$8

Record

61%

78-49 (127)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846CTR

Under

Invested

$143.5

Value

$17.5

PnL

+$22.75

Record

20%

50-202 (252)

ameisgoat11CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.58

Value

$10.63

PnL

+$4.05

Record

18%

55-248 (303)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.74

Value

$4.62

PnL

+$0.88

Record

52%

119-110 (229)

User7429<$100

Over

Invested

$1.21

Value

$2.09

PnL

+$0.88

Record

16%

38-206 (244)

Research grade

AvoidOver at 89%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 11 top traders (45%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Over) and the top 1000 (7 on Under) disagree here.

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 71% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.0%

88.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.15

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.